Volatility Views

Volatility Views 149: History of Economic Data Volatility Viewpoint: Mark & Bill breakdown the RMC Conference. The most interesting panels and presentations, surprising revelations, and other like or dislikes.     Volatility Review: A look at the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash: Low: 13.25 - High: 15.33 Skew Index: 127.26 VIX Options: Total 4.97m (3.38m Calls, 1.59m Puts) The extended hours for VIX options began trading on Monday, while the extended hours for SPX options are expected to start on Monday, March 9. International Volatility Review: ECB plans to buy foreign debt. Crude Oil: Expect more volatility in oil says Exxon CEO Crystal Ball: Is vol creeping back in      

Volatility Views 148: What Color Is the Dress?   Volatility Review: A look back in the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash: Low: 12.86, High: 15.48 Skew Index: 126.20 The extended hours for VIX options are set to begin Monday, March 2, while the extended hours for SPX options are expected to start on Monday, March 9. VIX Options: Total 4.38m (2.98m Calls, 1.40m Puts) VIX term structure hits CBOE earnings International Volatility Review Crude Oil: Volatility returning to oil. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Jordan M. - Do you have any updates on the volatility ETF from Robert Whaley that proposes to eliminate the roll yield issues with VXX? Is it coming to market any time soon? Question from Smile Creators - Hello, big fan. Thanks for the great shows. Is there a study that tracks Implied vol vs Historical vol? I am interested to see when they are following the same pattern or they deviate. Pakapiko. Question from Mr. Bochco - Where do you guys fall on the great 252 vs 365 debate when analyzing volatility? I have heard arguments for both. At the end of the day does volatility not occur even on the weekends and holidays? The Wager:    Comment from AvonDude - Recent comments from the Fed this week seem to reinforce Marks stance on rates. Whomever wins the wager should buy the other guy a bottle of the fine liquor of their choice. Comment from Mike S. - Not looking good on the Fed front. I probably have to fall on the no change side of the fence after this week. I do not remember which host wagered on what but I would like to see the losing host make a donation to the other host’s favorite charity. That way everyone wins. Comment from Tom Statton - I think both co-hosts should buy Mark a steak regardless of the outcome for featuring them on this fantastic program. Well done Mark. I would buy you one as well if you ever make it to Alberta. Comment from Mark A. - No way Fed raises this year. When he loses I think Jared should fly to Chicago and host a cocktail party for all Volatility Views listeners. I would happily allow him to buy me some tasty beverages. Comment from SylvanElph - Regarding the Fed Bet - It o\is a radio program so the co-hosts cannot wear embarrassing outfits. Maybe buy the other a pizza of their choice? So Jared would have to buy Mark (and Mark) a nice Chicago deep dish and Mark would have to buy Jared a tasty NYC thin crust. Or New Haven style. Whatever his preference. Comment from Jeremy Stevens - I think the Fed will have to adjust their rates before the close of 2015. They are too terrified of inflation and stagflation to sit on their hands. Not sure why a blip in CHF in early 2015 would set the tone for Fed policy at the end of 2015? Maybe Mark can elaborate? As for the wager - How about the loser gives away 5 free subscriptions to his services to VV listeners? So Jared can give away some BGC Research and Mark can offer his Option Pit subscriptions.   Crystal Ball: Andrew and Jared prognosticate wildly. VIX cash to below 13? 

Volatility Views 147: Men Cause Volatility Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective   VIX Cash: High - 16.74, Low - 15.10 S&P: 30-day IV - 13, 30-day HV - 15, Skew Index - 131.30 VIX Options:  A decent volume week except for 2/19 with only 250k contracts. Total 3.39m (2.33m Calls, 1.06m Puts). Extended VIX Options trading hours start March 2. International Volatility Review: Greece is the word. Oil: The battle for $50 continues - WTI March futures back below $50, OVX at $55.75. Men create volatility? Could more women traders cut volatility? Experimental market sessions show more women traders = smaller and fewer bubbles Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments   Follow-up from Uncle Ben - Thanks for answering my question last week. Your sympathy for my plight as the “lone market participant” is appreciated. Sorry I set off Jared’s racism detector with my handle. I did not mean to derail the program. It just happens to be my name (although I do like the rice).   Question from Brian T. - You say earnings is a crap shoot, so you simply should not play the game. I say that if you take a systematic, risk-limited short volatility approach, such as with iron condors, you maximize the potential to harvest premium, while eliminating the risk of what Mark referred to as "big blowouts". You clearly have to be judicious with your strike selection, but I have found this to be a profitable long term approach to earnings season. Question from Tim Biggs - Any data on that theta free approach to earnings? What percentage of decay occurs prior to the event vs. post-event and how does that compare to underlying movement during the period?   Crystal Ball: Will the Eurozone move towards gradual progress? What does economic growth really mean? Other wild prognostications.    

Volatility Views 146: Betting on Fed Volatility Volatility Review: A look back in the week from a volatility perspective   VIX Cash: High - 19.28, low - 15.26 S&P: 30-Day Imp. Vol - 13, 30-Day Hist. Vol - 16. Skew Index - 129.94 VVIX: Thursday Close - 93.24 VIX Options: 700K contracts on Feb 12, for a strong up day for the market. Total 5.36m (3.28M calls, 2.08M puts). Extended VIX Options trading hours start March 2. Upcoming launch of RealVol SPY Options on BOX - good news for our former co-hosts. VXST: Current open interest: 3 contracts. RVX: Current open interest: 58 contracts. International Volatility Review: RVI - Russian Volatility Index OIL: WTI March futures are back above $50, after dipping below it again. OVX still hovering near $60, 6-month chart of OVX is pretty impressive.   Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Follow-up from Uncle Ben - Thanks for answering my question last week. Your sympathy for my plight as the “lone market participant” is appreciated. Sorry I set off the racism detector with my handle. I did not mean to derail the program. It just happens to be my name (although I do like the rice).   Question from Tim Biggs - Any data on that theta free approach to earnings? What percentage of decay occurs prior to the event vs. post-event and how does that compare to underlying movement during the period? Question from George - This may seem like a silly question but does anyone go out and look at old VIX cash data from 30 days ago and compare that to current realized? Is that not what VIX cash is attempting to predict? Is that disseminated anywhere as a number or index? Something along the lines of a VIX Accuracy Index? The Wager: Comment from Tom Statton - I think both co-hosts should buy Mark a steak regardless of the outcome for featuring them on this fantastic program. Well done Mark. I would buy you one as well if you ever make it to Alberta. Comment from Mark A - No way Fed raises this year. When he loses, I think Jared should fly to Chicago and host a cocktail party for all Volatility Views listeners. I would happily allow him to buy me some tasty beverages. Comment from SylvanElph - Regarding the Fed Bet - It is a radio program so the co-hosts cannot wear embarrassing outfits. Maybe buy the other a pizza of their choice? So Jared would have to buy Mark (and Mark) a nice Chicago deep dish and Mark would have to buy Jared a tasty NYC thin crust. Or New Haven style. Whatever his preference. Comment from Jeremy Stevens - I think the Fed will have to adjust their rates before the close of 2015. They are too terrified of inflation and stagflation to sit on their hands. Not sure why a blip in CHF in early 2015 would set the tone for Fed policy at the end of 2015? Maybe Mark can elaborate? As for the wager - How about the loser gives away 5 free subscriptions to his services to VV listeners? So Jared can give away some BGC Research and Mark can offer his Option Pit subscriptions.     Crystal Ball: Mark and Mark prognosticate wildly.

Volatility Views 145: Debating Earnings Skew and Corporate Racism Volatility Review: A look at the week in vol:   VIX Cash: High: 22.81, Low: 16.67 S&P: 30-day IV: 15, 30-day HVOL: 16, Skew Index: 127.54 VVIX: Thursday close: 98.56 VIX Options: Total 4.80m (2.86m Calls, 1.95m Puts) Market now loving CBOE numbers, stock off 5.5% - earnings were up 7.6%, but missed expectations. Extended VIX Options trading hours start March 2. VXST: Another week of anemic volume dispute significant underlying movement. RVX: Still no appreciable volume. OIL: Another crazy week for oil - rallies over 20%, then clipped, the rallied more again. Currently hovering above the $50 strike again.   Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Reply from Ernitin14 - @OptionsInsider love Vol Views show. Here's my counterargument on remarks on skew shape. If everybody is hedging their short bet, vol squeeze is very likely which is exactly what happened in GOOG post earnings. Yes ATM call spread were the best plays, in case it was a win - win situation. Blow out numbers - upside explosion, so-so numbers- covering their shorts. What I am missing? Question from Uncle Ben - Liked the discussion on risk premium from the last episode. This is a topic I have always struggled with. It seems like you are chasing your tail either way. If you compare straightforward 30-day implied vol vs. historic vol, then you are comparing an indicator that is really 30 days forward with an indicator that is nearly 30 days lagging. It does not make much sense. If you attempt to extrapolate realized vol forward, you run into the same errors that plague implied volatility. There are millions of dollars spent on volatility forecasting models that cannot get it right, so what chance do I really have with my own little algorithm? Is this all a fool’s errand? Comment from Alvo - Hey guys - just a note that 30-day historical vol actually measures about 20 trading sessions, with 30-day implied vol foes out a full month. Different size sets = problems. Crystal Ball: Andrew and Jared prognosticate wildly.    

Volatility Views 144: Talking Earnings Volatility Volatility Review: A look in the week from a volatility perspective   VIX Cash: High: 21.55, Low: 15.52 S&P: 30-day IV: 18, 30-day HVOL: 17, Skew Index: 130.44. Goldman says nap time for put sellers. VVIX: Thurs close: 100.70, Week range: 91.85-109.99 VIX Options: Total 4.29m (2.97m Calls, 1.32m Puts) VXST: Another week of anemic volume despite significant underlying movement. RVX: Still no appreciable volume. OIL: Another crazy week for oil. Saudi prince reiterates that "we will never see $100 oil again." OPEC Chief says this may be the bottom for oil.   Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments   Question from NINC - Hey Volatility Views guys. I know you have discussed the topic of earnings studies in the past, particularly as it relates to earnings straddles. You said there was not much research on the topic. Has the situation changed since that conversation? Has there been any new research on the topic? I know you discussed the possibility of doing such a study for this program? What is the status of that study? Please let me know when you release it as I would be very interested in the results. Thank you for this network. I am a regular listener of volatility views, options boot camp and the news rundown programs. Question from Andrew S - If you had to lean long or short going into every earnings cycle which way would you go? Me - I am tempted short but I am terrified about the blowout events. Question from Nitin Gulati - @OptionsInsider Funny how $GOOG moved today, apparently skew was bid up all day yesterday, so not a surprise. Crystal Ball: Mark and Jared prognosticate wildly.  

Volatility Views 143: The Great Fed Debate Volatility Review: The week in volatility ECB takes all of the vol out of the market in one fell swoop. S&P 500 volatility streak longest since '12 as 1% moves multiply. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.5 per cent yesterday and moved 1.3 per cent from its lowest to highest levels. VXST: Another week of crappy volume. (The Mystery of Short-Term Volatility)  FX Volatility: Another crazy week following the Swiss Franc crisis. Crude Oil: Crude continues to take it on the chin. Domestic crude supplies at near record levels. Iraq increasing production to offset declining revenues. Death of the Saudi King adding to the confusion. Here’s the chart that Mark was referring to from Daily FX:       Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Marcus N - You discussed the retracement from backwardation to contango in VIX Futures on the last episode. If I thought the retracement would be rapid and I wanted to play that retracement, would the near-term futures or options be my best bet? Question from Avrile - Risk premium - What is it? I have seen it defined many ways. Is it a products 30-day implied vs. 30-day realized? 10-day vs. 10-day? If using 30-day realized that’s a lagging indicator. Do you then have to extrapolate that forward using an algorithm, then compare that to 30-day implied to get a more accurate number? What about comparing something like front month or 30-day implied SPX volatility vs VIX Cash or VIX Future? Is that the best surrogate for the markets risk premium? Or has VIX Cash become such a polluted number that it is better to stick with straight SPX implied volatility?     Crystal Ball: Mark and Jared prognosticate wildly!

Volatility Views 142: The Swiss Franc Black Swan Volatility Review: A look at the week that was: Swiss Franc: Deutsche Bank AG suffered about $150 million in losses Thursday after the Swiss National Bank abruptly removed the cap on the Swiss franc’s value, sparking a massive rally. Meanwhile, a major U.S. currency broker warned its equity was wiped out, a U.K. retail broker entered insolvency and a New Zealand foreign-exchange trading house collapsed. Crude Oil: Oil prices fell on Thursday after weak U.S. economic data spurred worries over crude oil demand. U.S. crude declined $2.23, or 4.6 percent, to settle at $46.25 a barrel. Brent crude was last down $1 to trade around $48 a barrel. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Mark Brant - @Options How long does VIX backwardation normally last and are the reversions to contango sharp or mild? Question from Analygos - I have heard you discuss previously buying options prior to earnings to capitalize on free gamma with no decay. My question is about after earnings when the premium collapses. Is that technically options decay all coming out of the option at once? Or is it a collapse of implied volatility that is erasing the premium in the options? If the latter then is the decay technically occurring every day prior to earnings and just being overcome by increasing implied volatility leading up to the earnings event?   Crystal Ball: What is coming up for this week in vol? Expiration making things extra crazy.

Volatility Views 141: The Return of Euan Sinclair Volatility Viewpoint: Euan Sinclair, author of Volatility Trading Editions 1 and 2 and Options Trading,is back.  Euan is an option trader with over eighteen years of professional trading experience. He currently works on strategy design and is the risk manager at Bluefin Trading. He holds a PhD in theoretical physics from the University of Bristol.   He discusses:   The major volatility takeaways/lessons from 2014? The dramatic increase in "vol-of-vol" at the end of the year, and the primary drivers of that? Did the flight of institutional liquidity from the markets contribute to the increase in "vol-of-vol", or is the lack of liquidity overplayed? His take on what we are seeing from a commodity vol perspective right now, particularly crude oil? His opinion of VXST, and why it has not gained more traction His opinion on the two VIX competitors in the works - Voldex and the Whaley Project A sneak peek at his new book and what he is looking out for in 2015     Crystal Ball: Non-farm payroll numbers were the only vol driver this week. Maybe the start of earnings season will inject some volatility back into this marketplace?

Volatility Views 139: Getting Angry About Volatility Volatility Review: The week in volatility: VIX Cash: Low - 12.55, High - 21.09 VIX Options: Total 6.66M (4.35M calls, 2.31M puts) VXST: Total 7,746 (5,185 calls, 2,561 puts) Oil Volatility: USO vs. XLE - Traders hedge oil ETF while energy stocks lure buyers. Volatility Voicemail: Questions and comments from our loyal listeners Question from CPunk - Hello Volatility Gurus! Long time, first time. Love your discussions of all things volatility, particularly your breakdowns of the different products. I listened to your episode with Scott Nations recently and it got me thinking about how most volatility products appear to be very flawed. VIX has obvious issues and the Voldex product does not appear to solve many of them beyond eliminating skew. The various ETPs all have very well-known issues as well. If I had to think of an ideal volatility product, it would probably be something along the lines of what your former sponsors VolX promoted - a product that essentially captures the actual volatility in the marketplace. I am not familiar with the underlying mechanics of their product to analyze it, but I think we need more products in that vein, that attempt to deliver the actual volatility in the marketplace versus some vague guesstimate that is probably wildly inaccurate. Do you agree? If you could construct your ideal volatility product, what would it be? Crystal Ball: What do we expect to see in the last few weeks of 2014?