The CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox

With Treasury yields marching upward, the podcast team dives into inflation, jobs, and big tech earnings data and what it means ahead of the presidential election. A lot has changed in the last 45 days as investor euphoria has recalibrated. The team also shares Q3 data from LightBox RCM, focusing on capital market and investment trends. And ‘Professor’ Manus gives us an education on CMBS losses with some doses of fact and fiction. Transactions covered this week have some surprises and a fair share of green shoots. Have questions for the podcast team? Reach out to podcast@lightboxre.com.00:17 Economic Data and Treasury Yields 02:20 Inflation and Market Sentiment 08:49 Big Tech Earnings and AI Investment 13:19 Nuclear Energy “Reprise” 17:09 Lightbox Data Dive and Market Trends 31:46 Office Leasing and Sales Highlights 36:33 Environmental Due Diligence and Property Resilience 37:54 Chobani's New Headquarters and Social Impact 39:41 Halloween “Fun Size”  www.lightboxre.com

In this week’s podcast episode, Brian Olasov, Executive Director of Financial Services Consulting at Carlton Fields and Adjunct Professor of Real Estate Capital Markets at New York University Schack, joins the team to discuss the current state of the commercial real estate market. With the benefit of a historical perspective, Brian holds nothing back as he discusses today's market challenges, and why this recovery is not like the one from the Great Financial Crisis. He also explores the paradoxical situation banks find themselves in and the evolving role of private equity in shaping commercial real estate trends.02:20 Flawed Forecasts and Contrary Indicators 10:58 Today's Lender's Market Conditions  15:40 The Snowplow Effect and Market Dynamics 21:54 Private Equity's Role in the Current Market  25:41 Data Centers: The New Investment Favorite 30:24 Managing Operating Expenses in a Challenging Market 32:18 Loan Servicing Industry's Capacity to Handle Distress www.lightboxre.com

In this week’s guest pod episode, the team dives into the potential economic impact of the upcoming November election with special guest David McCarthy, managing director and head of Legislative Affairs at CREFC. McCarthy breaks down the CRE risks and opportunities tied to outcome scenarios, examining potential impacts on taxes, housing and climate change policies, and banking regulations. Plus, how can the industry address concerns over property risk and soaring insurance rates in the wake of extreme weather events? 02:56 What are the Risks and Opportunities?  05:47 Focus on Tax Policy 11:52 The Role of the Federal Reserve 15:10 Private Equity and Regulatory Concerns 18:01 Insurance Challenges in Commercial Real Estate 20:49 Housing Policy and Government Support 24:03 Who’s Worried about the Federal Deficit? 26:53 Basel III and Banking Regulations www.lightboxre.com

This week the team considers whether the Fed’s jumbo rate cut last month now seems ill-advised in the context of fresh inflation data that was warmer than expected and the September jobs report that showed a surge in job growth.  This episode is chock full including LightBox data analysis assessing Hurricane Milton’s landfall with structures at risk; CRE appraisal trends for Q3; office leasing comps, and sales comps with one that sounds like ‘music’ to our ears.   Plus, a deep dive into post-storm impact related to hazardous substances and contamination, emphasizing the need to assess these risks. Listen to the end for a clue about an immersive Times Square experience that’s coming.02:58 Federal Reserve's Rate Decisions and Market Reactions06:11 Impact of Natural Disasters on Real Estate09:07 Environmental Risks and Post-Hurricane Assessments11:48 Office Leasing Activity17:59 Emerging Trends in Environmental Due Diligence20:45 Appraisal Index and Market Snapshots27:02 Sales Trends and Market Dynamicswww.lightboxre.com

Join Martha, Manus, and Dianne on this week’s episode of the CRE Weekly Digest as they dive into the impact of Hurricane Helene and the industry's move toward a Property Resilience Assessment to better measure environmental risk.  The team also reveals the latest LightBox CRE Activity Index, which rose modestly in September, signaling growing confidence in the CRE market. Listen to the discussion about how the Fed policy shift has fueled an increase in property listings and due diligence activities, setting the stage for a strong fourth quarter. But the young recovery could go wobbly with recent macro events like the devastation from the hurricane, the (now suspended) port labor strike, and escalating conflict in the Middle East. There are also notable office lease stories and sales comps across property types that round out the week's news.  The team dedicates this podcast to those impacted by Hurricane Helene and the emergency personnel responding to the post-hurricane recovery efforts.00:00 Concerning Macro Events 02:55 Impact of Hurricane Helene 05:48 Climate Risk and Property Resilience Assessment 09:06 LightBox CRE Activity Index 15:11 Leasing Trends and Office Leasing 18:06 Sales Transactions and Market Highlightswww.lightboxre.com

Join Martha Coacher and Dianne Crocker on this week’s episode of the CRE Weekly Digest by Lightbox, featuring lending industry expert Candi Coleman. They discuss the top concerns among lenders and appraisers, assess current economic shifts impacting commercial real estate, and share the post-Fed rate cut takeaways from the CREW Network convention. Plus, hear why one industry titan has decided to “check out” of one of its well-known lodging brands.00:59 Economic Data and Fed Rate Cut Impact05:08 CREW Network Annual Convention Takeaways05:47 Commercial Real Estate Forecast08:59 Housing Market Update12:09 Lightbox Data Dive: Q3 Appraisal Activity15:01 Appraisal and Lending Market Trends17:50 San Francisco Office Market24:00 Blackstone “Checks Out” of Motel 6www.lightboxre.com

In this special edition of the CRE Weekly Digest by Lightbox, Martha, Manus, and Dianne discuss the implications of the Fed's 50 basis-point rate cut. What are some of the immediate and long-term effects on commercial real estate as the market shifts into this easing cycle? The team details the tailwinds for bank lending, private equity, developers, and brokers, as well as the broader U.S. economy. But there are some areas of concern to watch for. Find out where those pockets of risk remain.01:01 Market Implications of the Rate Cut03:51 Paradox of the Rate Cut12:47 Impact on Banks and Lending18:02 Owners and Brokers19:58 Developers and Investors 21:50 Predictions on Distress Levelswww.lightboxre.com

In this week’s episode, Martha, Manus, and Dianne explore why recent data on inflation, jobs, and the consumer economy are tempering CRE market enthusiasm, even with expected Fed rate cuts. Plus, the team offers a look at LightBox data which reveals promising signs for the Q3 2024 Appraisal Index and what that may mean in the following months for CRE participants.   0:10 Economic Policy Predictions 9:00 Market Sentiment and CRE Outlook 12:50 LightBox Data Dive: Appraisal Activity 17:31 From the Field 25:35 Who’s Fighting for Office Space?  32:15 9/11 Anniversary Tribute  Have questions for the podcast team? Send them to podcast@lightboxre.com  www.lightboxre.com

In this week's CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox, Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker dissect a new round of data from labor reports, retail earnings, and market performance that raise doubts about a soft landing for the economy. The latest on jobs and consumer spending is spooking traders. Is the bad news really bad this time around? “Professor” Manus gives us his take on the uninverted yield curve and how Treasury moves could impact refinance opportunities; Dianne offers a sneak peek at the CRE Activity Index and what it means; and the team dives into some good and not so good office trends. Stick to the end to hear an interesting retail conversion story that gives visitors a choose-your-adventure type experience.00:17 Market Overview: Labor Market Concerns02:08 Retailer Insights on Consumer Spending05:04 Treasury Yield and Recession Indicators08:26 The Fed Will be the Tell for Market Sentiment12:33 Multifamily Lending Projections Reforecast16:42 Lightbox Data Dive: CRE Activity Index25:31 Office Trends32:12 Recent Comps for Multifamily, Retail, and Industrial35:28 Choose your Adventure at the Netflix Housewww.lightboxre.com

Tune into the latest episode of The CRE Weekly Digest, where Martha, Manus, and Dianne unpack the soft-landing narrative supported by new data on inflation, retail earnings, and the expected September Fed rate cuts. Plus, a deep dive into LightBox data on investor interest in multifamily and retail listings, and the latest on one executive’s high-flying commute.00:29 Soft Landing?01:55 Retail Earnings Surprises9:56 Housing Market Challenges 11:49 LightBox Data Dive: Investor Interest22:01 Office Leases Worth Noting26:14 Office and Multifamily Transactions32:22 Data Centers and Energy Challenges 36:25 One CEO’s ‘grande’ commute  www.lightboxre.com