Why AGI is Not Coming Soon

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AGI development will not be a sudden event but rather a gradual process requiring advancements in various areas such as learning from video, memory capabilities, reasoning, planning, and hierarchical representations. Each of these components will take time to develop individually and then to integrate into a cohesive system. It is estimated that it will take at least a decade, if not longer, to achieve AGI due to the complexities and unknown challenges that may arise in the process.

Yann LeCun is the Chief AI Scientist at Meta, professor at NYU, Turing Award winner, and one of the most influential researchers in the history of AI. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors:
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OUTLINE:
Here’s the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
(00:00) – Introduction
(09:10) – Limits of LLMs
(20:47) – Bilingualism and thinking
(24:39) – Video prediction
(31:59) – JEPA (Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture)
(35:08) – JEPA vs LLMs
(44:24) – DINO and I-JEPA
(45:44) – V-JEPA
(51:15) – Hierarchical planning
(57:33) – Autoregressive LLMs
(1:12:59) – AI hallucination
(1:18:23) – Reasoning in AI
(1:35:55) – Reinforcement learning
(1:41:02) – Woke AI
(1:50:41) – Open source
(1:54:19) – AI and ideology
(1:56:50) – Marc Andreesen
(2:04:49) – Llama 3
(2:11:13) – AGI
(2:15:41) – AI doomers
(2:31:31) – Joscha Bach
(2:35:44) – Humanoid robots
(2:44:52) – Hope for the future