How Long Will It Be Before AI Can Write a Full-Length Prize Winning Fiction Novel?

The timeline for computers to reach average human level performance on every task is uncertain and has shortened over the past few years. The consensus estimate for when AI can write a full-length prize-winning fiction novel is about five to ten years, according to both proponents and skeptics of AGI. This suggests that understanding enough about the world to achieve this task may not necessarily require AGI capabilities. The convergence of opinions among natural language processing researchers on this timeline is considered strange and surprising, as it was previously believed to be a more complex and distant goal.