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THIS WEEKEND IN HISTORY

December 2, 1805: At the Battle of Austerlitz, Napoleon wins what was arguably his greatest victory against a larger joint Russian-Austrian army. The Allies suffered 36,000 dead/wounded/captured compared with only 9000 for the French. The French victory was so complete that not only did it end the War of the Third Coalition, it allowed Napoleon to create the Confederation of the Rhine among the German states that had become French clients. Emperor Francis II was then forced to dissolve the Holy Roman Empire, which had been in existence continuously since 962 and traced its origins back to Charlemagne’s coronation as “emperor of the Romans” in 800.

December 2, 1942: Enrico Fermi and his team create the first self-sustaining nuclear reaction at “Chicago Pile-1,” a rudimentary reactor built under the campus of the University of Chicago. This was the first milestone achievement for the Manhattan Project in its race to build a nuclear bomb before Nazi Germany.

December 3, 1971: The Pakistani military undertakes preemptive airstrikes against several Indian military installations, beginning the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971, itself the final phase of the Bangladesh Liberation War. India was preparing to enter the war on Bangladesh’s side anyway, so when I say these strikes were “preemptive” I am not using that term in the phony, George W. Bush “hey they might attack us someday, you never know” sense of the term. The war, to put it mildly, was a complete disaster for the Pakistanis, who were forced to surrender a scant 13 days later and had to give up their claims on “East Pakistan” (Bangladesh) while suffering around a third of their military killed, wounded, or captured. In one of Henry Kissinger’s more notorious acts, the Nixon administration opted to support Pakistan despite evidence of its armed forces committing major atrocities against Bangladeshi civilians.

December 3, 1984: A Union Carbide pesticide plant in Bhopal, India, spews toxic methyl isocyanate gas overnight, resulting in the deaths of between 3800 and 16,000 people and causing injury to at least 558,000 more. Union Carbide maintains that the leak was caused by deliberate sabotage, though Indian courts subsequently found several officials at the plant guilty of negligence. The “Bhopal Disaster” remains one of the worst industrial catastrophes in history and its adverse effects are still being felt by people in that region to the present day.

MIDDLE EAST

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

The Israeli military (IDF) was advancing on the southern Gazan city of Khan Younis on Sunday, with Hamas officials and residents both reporting indications of nearby fighting and the IDF later confirming that it has sent ground forces into southern Gaza. The IDF has been ordering civilians to evacuate the eastern reaches of Khan Younis, and of course it’s posted a helpful interactive map on its website that warns civilians of imminent danger provided those civilians have reliable internet access and haven’t lost their special IDF secret decoder rings. Residents of Khan Younis will likely move further south to Rafah, though that city is also under heavy IDF bombardment so it’s not really safe either. Israeli officials say the IDF struck more than 400 targets over the weekend, and the official Gazan death toll had risen at last check to 15,523. The real death toll may be substantially higher, given the likelihood of bodies that haven’t yet been recovered and the closure of most of the hospitals that were handling casualties.

Elsewhere:

* Aid shipments into Gaza have resumed. The Palestinian Red Crescent Society says that 100 truckloads of aid entered the territory from Egypt on Saturday and I believe the aim was to bring in a similar number of trucks on Sunday though I have not seen any information yet as to whether that was accomplished.

* The Biden administration may be “pressing” Israel and Hamas to resume negotiations, as White House spokes-ghoul John Kirby told NBC on Sunday, but there’s no indication it’s having any success. After the ceasefire collapsed on Friday the Israeli government recalled its Mossad negotiators from Qatar, and for Hamas’s part the Islamist group’s political wing has sworn off any future prisoner swaps “until the war ends.”

* The administration is continuing to send large quantities of ordinance to the IDF, including massive “bunker buster” bombs. So any claim that it’s really pushing the Israeli government to negotiate a ceasefire or even demonstrate greater discernment in its bombardments really doesn’t hold up terribly well.

* Israel Hayom is reporting that “key figures” in the US Congress have been shown the text of a “new initiative” that would condition future US aid to Egypt, Iraq, Turkey, and Yemen (all of which it identified as “Arab states,” which would be news to the Turks) on the willingness of governments in those four states to enable the ethnic cleansing of Gaza by taking in refugees. That same outlet has also reported (in Hebrew, so here’s a summary from Ryan Grim) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has asked Minister of Strategic Planning Ron Dermer to put together a plan to “thin the population in Gaza to a minimum,” which if nothing else is an incredible euphemism. The Biden administration has rejected any forced and/or permanent relocation of Gazan civilians, a point that Vice President Kamala Harris reiterated during her visit to the COP28 climate summit in Dubai over the weekend. But it perhaps could be sold on the idea of a “voluntary” (in quotes because in reality it would be anything but) evacuation that is characterized as temporary even if there’s no real intention to ever let the evacuees return.

* The Guardian says its reporting has confirmed the findings of that bombshell +972 Magazine piece from a few days ago, which reported that the IDF has been using an AI system called “Habsora” (“The Gospel”) to identify targets under a process that’s been likened to a “mass assassination factory.” The system is producing targets faster than the IDF can attack them, including private homes where the likelihood of civilian casualties is high. Israeli officials are apparently insisting that the AI is programmed to minimize civilian risk, an assertion that cannot be squared with the high number of civilian casualties incurred so far in this conflict.

* Israeli settler mobs attacked two West Bank villages in separate incidents on Saturday, killing at least one Palestinian in one of those attacks. The human rights organization Yesh Din says it’s catalogued some 225 settler attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank since October 7, resulting in at least nine deaths.

* On a somewhat related note, one of the people killed in last Thursday’s shooting in East Jerusalem turns out to have been an Israeli civilian who shot and killed the two Hamas attackers and then was mistakenly gunned down by Israeli soldiers. Video footage apparently shows the man disarming, kneeling, and opening his shirt to demonstrate to the soldiers that he was not a threat, but one of them killed him anyway. The incident has raised issues regarding the trigger happiness of Israeli security forces and the wisdom of the Israeli government’s armed vigilante program, which in addition to risking civilian Palestinian deaths also risks more “friendly fire” shootings like this one.

* The Washington Post published a story this weekend about the hasty evacuation of al-Nasr Children’s Hospital in northern Gaza last month. Without going into some of the grislier details, the staff was forced to evacuate by the IDF and left behind four premature infants who likely would not have survived relocation. They say Israeli officials told them the infants would be taken out in Red Cross ambulances but apparently they were left to die and, eventually, decompose. Reporters discovered their remains during the ceasefire. Israeli officials insist that they never ordered al-Nasr’s evacuation and have questioned the veracity of the story, despite video evidence and a recording of a phone call that the IDF itself released in which an Israeli official appears to acknowledge the need to rescue patients from the facility. The Red Cross says it never agreed to assist the evacuation and that conditions in northern Gaza would have made it impossible for its personnel to get to al-Nasr to retrieve the infants.

* I mention the al-Nasr story because it strikes me as especially galling. In general I’m trying not to focus heavily on individual atrocities or allegations of atrocities in compiling these newsletters—there would be no space for anything else otherwise. I hope readers don’t mistake that for apathy about any of these stories, going back to and including the atrocities committed/allegedly committed by Gazan militants on October 7 (I know cases of sexual violence have been receiving heavy coverage of late). I feel my role here is to try to provide an overview and for me that means keeping some distance from specific events. I’m sure I don’t do that consistently but it is my aim.

SYRIA

According to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, that Saturday morning Israeli missile attack in the vicinity of Damascus killed at least two of its personnel who were in Syria on an “advisory” mission. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that the strikes killed two Syrians who were affiliated with Hezbollah as well as two foreigners, presumably these IRGC members, while wounding five other people.

YEMEN

Houthi rebels in northern Yemen fired a barrage of missiles and drones at ships in the Red Sea on Sunday. The group damaged three commercial ships and also fired at least three drones at the US naval destroyer USS Carney, which shot the projectiles down. There’s no indication of any casualties and two of the vessels reported only minor damage (I’m unsure as to the status of the third). I would not be surprising if the US military were to retaliate against the Houthis in the near future, and there is a genuine risk that this could lead to a full-blown resumption of the Yemen war—though of course that would require Saudi Arabia’s involvement.

IRAQ

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaʿ al-Sudani reportedly told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during a phone conversation on Saturday that Baghdad does not appreciate the US military carrying out attacks on Iraqi soil. The US attacked two Iraqi militia-linked targets on November 22 (during this newsletter’s holiday pause), “killing nine pro-Iran fighters” in retaliation for attacks against US personnel according to AFP. Those attacks tapered off during the Gaza ceasefire, but as we know that ceasefire is no longer operative.

On Sunday, US forces carried out a drone strike on a militia target in Iraq’s Kirkuk province, killing at least five people and wounding five more. There was initially no indication as to responsibility (though one didn’t exactly have to be Sherlock Holmes to solve this caper), but the US military later confirmed that it was responsible and characterized the strike as preempting “an imminent threat.”

ASIA

PAKISTAN

Unspecified gunmen attacked a bus in northern Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan region late Saturday, killing at least nine people and injuring at least 26 others. The bus driver was among those killed, along with the driver of a truck with which the bus collided. There’s been no claim of responsibility and the main body of the Pakistani Taliban has taken the rare step of denying any involvement.

PHILIPPINES

A bombing targeting a Catholic mass killed at least four people and left several others wounded on the campus of Mindanao State University in the southern Philippine city of Marawi on Sunday. Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack via Telegram. The previous day, the Philippine military said its forces killed at least 11 jihadist militants in nearby Maguindanao province in an attack targeting “suspected leaders and armed followers of the Dawla Islamiyah [i.e. ‘Islamic State’] and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters” to borrow the AP’s verbiage. I don’t know whether Sunday’s bombing was planned in advance or was intended as a direct retaliation for Saturday’s incident.

AFRICA

GUINEA-BISSAU

The president of Guinea-Bissau, Umaro Sissoco Embaló, characterized Thursday night’s gun battle between elements of the National Guard and his Presidential Palace Battalion as an “attempted coup” in comments to reporters on Saturday. Embaló had been out of the country attending the COP28 summit when the incident took place and said it had delayed his return to Bissau. National Guard commander Victor Tchongo is now in government custody, but Embaló appeared to suggest that there were other coup plotters behind Tchongo and said he would open an investigation into the incident on Monday. The National Guard is part of the Interior Ministry, which AFP says is “dominated” by the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAICG). That party, which won June’s parliamentary election and now controls the government, is opposed to Embaló.

BURKINA FASO

The military governments of Burkina Faso and Niger announced on Saturday that they are both withdrawing from the G5 Sahel regional counterinsurgency force. That group was formed in 2014 with the aim of pooling resources to battle the various jihadist groups that were threatening Sahelian governments. It began deploying joint forces a couple of years later, but as you might already have concluded it’s had minimal impact on the region’s jihadist crisis. Mali’s ruling junta quit last year, so of the original five member states only Mauritania and Chad still remain.

ETHIOPIA

Officials in Ethiopia’s Oromian regional government have accused the rebel Oromo Liberation Army of killing at least 36 civilians in attacks on three villages that took place on November 24 and 27. The OLA apparently hasn’t commented and there’s no confirmation of the government claim, but the alleged attacks took place not long after another round of peace talks between the OLA and Ethiopian government broke down, so it’s conceivable the group decided to lash out in that moment. The OLA was formed as the military wing of the Oromo Liberation Front in the 1970s but broke away from the group’s political leadership when the latter reached a peace accord with the Ethiopian government in 2018. It frequently attacks non-Oromo communities in Oromia, though authorities have only said that the victims of these attacks were Orthodox Christians without reference to ethnicity.

EUROPE

UKRAINE

Russian military operations in eastern Ukraine may have hit a couple of speed bumps over the weekend. For one thing, reports that emerged on Friday suggesting that the Russians had seized the town of Maryinka, southwest of the city of Donetsk, appear to have been a bit premature. Ukrainian forces are reportedly still in control of some parts of the town, including a coking plant, though that may change in relatively short order of course. Elsewhere, the Ukrainian military claimed on Saturday that Russian attacks on the city of Avdiivka had completely ceased for a full day. That too could change in a hurry, and indeed may already have changed by the time you read this, but it suggests the Russians were at least regrouping after spending the previous several days in what seemed like intense fighting to try to take the city.

The Ukrainian government says it’s investigating a claim that Russian soldiers summarily executed two surrendering Ukrainian military personnel. Details are minimal but there’s a video of this alleged incident circulating on social media. Needless to say, intentionally killing surrendering soldiers is a war crime.

FRANCE

A knife-wielding attacker killed one German tourist and wounded two other people near Paris’s Eiffel Tower late Saturday. The attacker is a French national who was on a French government “watch list,” had apparently pledged allegiance to Islamic State, and was also “known for having psychiatric disorders” according to Reuters. He cited the conflict in Gaza, among other triggers, to police after his arrest.

AMERICAS

BRAZIL

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said on Sunday that he has no intention of bringing Brazil into full membership in the OPEC+ bloc and would stick to “observer” status only, one day after he somewhat incoherently told reporters that he wanted to join the group of major oil producing nations to try to encourage them to stop producing oil. OPEC+ extended a membership offer to Brazil on Thursday, which I gather has raised some eyebrows given Lula’s stated commitment to combating climate change. Brazil’s state-owned oil company, Petrobras, is continuing to pursue new oil exploration, also despite Lula’s climate change position, though he says his aim is to invest oil profits in non-fossil fuel energy alternatives (and to encourage OPEC+ nations to do likewise). Oil remains the cause of, and solution to, all of humanity’s problems.

VENEZUELA

Venezuelans, or at least the ones who participated, apparently voted overwhelmingly in Sunday’s referendum to support their country’s territorial claim on western Guyana’s Essequibo region. Election officials said that the vote was 95 percent in favor for all of its five clauses—the most contentious of which was a question about whether or not to declare Essequibo a new Venezuelan state and extend citizenship to its residents—though there’s not much insight as to turnout. There’s no indication that the Venezuelan government is planning any imminent steps to try to actualize its claim on Essequibo but the referendum has nevertheless caused some consternation in Guyana and internationally.

UNITED STATES

Finally, HuffPost’s Akbar Shahid Ahmed offers some welcome reassurance that the worst Middle East “expert” in Washington is still central to the Biden administration’s regional policy:

Four men in Washington shape America’s policy in the Middle East. Three are obvious: President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan. The fourth is less well-known, despite his huge sway over the other three ― and despite his determination to keep championing policies that many see as fueling bloodshed in Gaza and beyond.

His name is Brett McGurk. He’s the White House coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, and he’s one of the most powerful people in U.S. national security.

McGurk crafts the options that Biden considers on issues from negotiations with Israel to weapon sales for Saudi Arabia. He controls whether global affairs experts within the government ― including more experienced staff at the Pentagon and the State Department ― can have any impact, and he decides which outside voices have access to White House decision-making conversations. His knack for increasing his influence is the envy of other Beltway operators. And he has a clear vision of how he thinks American interests should be advanced, regarding human rights concerns as secondary at best, according to current and former colleagues and close observers.

Indeed, even though McGurk has spent nearly 20 years giving bad advice about the Middle East to a succession of US presidents—and even though his fixation on Saudi-Israeli normalization at Palestinian expense may have helped trigger the October 7 attacks—his influence today appears to be greater than it’s ever been. I’m sure that makes all of us feel a little better.

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William T. Vetterling

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