Peter Stella

Peter Stella is the former head of the IMF’s Central Banking Division and has researched and written extensively on safe assets, collateral, and central bank operations. He now hosts the website, Central Banking Archaeology and continues to consult with the IMF on central bank balance sheet issues. Peter is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the quasi-fiscal implications of central bank crisis intervention over the past few years. David and Peter also discuss the losses on the Fed’s balance sheet, using market value versus the par value of debt, the Fed’s debt management issues with mortgage backed securities, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Peter’s Twitter: @Stellar_Consult Peter’s website   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Quasi-Fiscal Implications of Central Bank Crisis Interventions: Case Studies* by Peter Stella, John Hooley, and Claney Lattie   *Do Central Banks Need Capital?* by Peter Stella   *Exiting Well* by Peter Stella

Peter Stella, Former Head of the IMF Central Banking Division, joins Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed and author at Fedguy.com, and Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on:-what really causes inflation -monetarism, fiscal theory of the price level, and modern monetary theory (MMT)-the unrealized losses on the Fed’s balance sheet-why yield curve control likely won’t be necessary (or so Peter argues)-the longer the duration of a governments’ debt, the less inflation is required to inflate it away-when a central bank incurs unrealized losses, who “wins” and who “loses”? Filmed on March 29, 2023.____Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Joseph Wang’s writings: https://fedguy.com/Joseph’s latest piece, “Ameridollars”: https://fedguy.com/ameridollars/Peter Stella on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Stellar_ConsultPeter Stella’s work: https://www.centralbankarchaeology.com/“Do Central Banks Need Capital?” by Peter Stella: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/30/Do-Central-Banks-Need-Capital-2260Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023____Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:15) Peter Stella's Background At The International Monetary Fund (IMF)(03:55) Joseph Wang On The Flaws Of Monetarism(05:52) Milton Friedman: It's The Government That Prints Money(07:56) The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level(13:38) Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)(24:12) Real Value Of U.S. Debt Is Lower Now Than March 2020(37:33) Permissionless(38:38) The Fed Has Huge Unrealized Losses On Its Balance Sheet(45:29) Details About The Fed's Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Purchases In 2020(51:51) Did The Fed Help Wealthy Homeowners Refinance Their Mortgages In 2020?(54:21) Blockworks Research Plug(55:22) When The Federal Reserve Has Unrealied Losses On Its Balance Sheets, Who Loses and Who Gains?(01:13:50) Joseph Wang's Summary Of This Conversation(01:15:08) Yield Curve Control and Potential Debt Death Spiral____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.