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Paul Cavey
China-focused Asia economist with 25 years' experience, founder of East Asia Econ and former China economist at Macquarie and the Economist Intelligence Unit; interviewed about China, Japan, Taiwan and regional macro risks.
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Oct 16, 2025
• 56min
Ep. 330: Paul Cavey on US-China Trade War, Japan Politics and Taiwan Imbalances
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Paul Cavey, a seasoned China economist with 25 years of experience and founder of East Asia Econ, shares his insights on pressing regional issues. He dives into the recent escalations in the US-China trade war, evaluating China’s strategic leverage. Discussing the potential for Japanification in China, he contrasts it with Japan's past. Paul highlights China's two-speed economy, the nuanced implications of its bad debts, and the outlook for Japan's currency. He also warns about Taiwan's dependence on semiconductors and compares South Korea's risks to Japan's.
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