Nick Hare

In this engaging talk, Nick Hare, a former UK defence intelligence analyst and founder of Aleph Insights, delves into the art of superforecasting. He discusses the power of structured analytical methods in predicting geopolitical events, including the potential outcomes of the Ukraine war and China's ambitions toward Taiwan. Nick explains how he developed his forecasting skills, the vital role of data over intuition, and how governments often miss the mark by relying on biases. His insights reveal the fascinating dynamics that shape our world.