In this insightful conversation, Modest Proposal, an anonymous investor with a keen eye on public and private markets, delves into the complexities of today's economic landscape. He discusses the difference between frontier and open-source AI models, emphasizing the AI commoditization shift. The talk also covers overcapacity issues in transportation post-COVID and the economic implications of GLP-1 drugs for managing health conditions. Modest articulates the nuances of capital market dynamics, illustrating the challenges and opportunities investors face today.

A very short introduction today because my guest is anonymous. Suffice it to say he manages a large pool of private capital. He goes by the pseudonym “modest proposal” and his twitter presence is one of the reasons I first got on and now stay on the platform. He is level headed, smart, and skeptical by nature, all of which made for a great conversation. We discuss how difficult the market has become for active investors, thematic investment opportunities, and the potential sources of market mispricings. Please enjoy our conversation, and let me know which other anonymous accounts you’d like to hear from. For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Links Referenced Factors from Scratch: A look back, and forward, at how, when, and why factors work Josh Wolf Podcast Episode Mike Zapata Podcast Episode Michael Mauboussin Podcast Episode   Show Notes 1:55 - (First Question) - How value investing has changed 5:45 – How does he apply the lens of market over-reaction to the current market today             5:47 – Factors from Scratch: A look back, and forward, at how, when, and why factors work             7:06 – Josh Wolf Podcast Episode 8:35 – Areas where he prepares most             8:36 – Mike Zapata Podcast Episode 12:18 – Where markets may be over reacting in media 20:10 – How does he invest on this thinking             20:44 – Michael Mauboussin Podcast Episode 22:35 – Other parts of media that he finds interesting 27:35 – Aggregation theory and how it plays into his investment philosophy 31:06 – Structuring a long-short portfolio in today’s media market 35:59 – Customer acquisition costs and how it’s impacting retailers 40:51 – The role of physical locations in a world that was upended by virtual retailers 49:41 – Consumer Internet Story thesis and what he’s seen during his career 58:11 – Why the FANG stocks can’t win in the niches 1:02:25 – The distrusted 50 1:05:00 – How he thinks about Capital Allocation and buybacks 1:11:08 – His view on international equity markets 1:13:58 – His take on the asset management business 1:19:38 – Allocation of a portfolio in between periods of conviction 1:21:08 – People that he has learned the most from 1:23:54 – How do you identify people who are capable of evolving after a rough spot 1:26:53 - How does he force himself to adapt to new conditions and evolve 1:30:31 - Thoughts in investing in cannabis industry 1:32:31 – Conditions where he would get interested in crypto currency 1:36:20 – Kindest thing anyone has done for him   Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

Modest Proposal, a well-respected thinker on financial Twitter, dives into investment strategies for today's dynamic market. He discusses the shift towards prioritizing future potential over historical performance. The conversation also highlights how reducing friction can enhance consumer engagement, with examples like Uber and Zillow. Additionally, Modest delves into the evolution of seemingly trivial business ideas and the complexities of navigating online marketplaces. His insights on monopoly dynamics and valuation challenges provide a fresh perspective on investing.