Mikael Sarwe

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Mikael Sarwe, director and head of Strategy Sweden at Nordea, to the show. Sarwe argues that with collapsing liquidity driving down the money supply, the ability of market participants to take risk is greatly reduced, and as such the mid-term outlook for risk assets remains poor. Sarwe explains that he remains bond volatility to remain high, but that nonetheless he expects longer-duration bonds to significantly outperform equities over the coming six to nine months. To hear Mikael’s actionable trade idea, you’ll have to tune in! This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Stani Kulechov, Andrew Peel, Lisa Cameron, Jon Cheesman and Thomas Uhm. Visit https://blockworks.co/events/ and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Mikael: https://twitter.com/mikaelsarwe Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Intro (00:44) U.S. Inflation Report (09:05) Is The Bond Market Broken? (13:39) Mikael Sarwe's Recession Thesis (19:04) When Will Central Banks Stop Hiking Interest Rates? (23:33) U.K. Gilts and the Bank of England (BOE) (26:39) Outlook on Bonds (33:22) The Dollar (37:34) The Trade (39:40) Analysis Of The Trade (49:55) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Mikael Sarwe, head of equity strategy and quant at Nordea, discusses recession risks in the US, Europe, and China in an in-depth exploration. They examine indicators suggesting a recession, the impact of manufacturing and service sectors, the economic situation in Sweden, spike in commodity prices, viability of bonds as a hedge, equity performance and sector outlook, and the likelihood of a payroll recession and investment opportunities.

Mikael Sarwe, an expert from Nordea Bank, discusses the impact of production cuts on inflation and growth. Topics include oil price rallies, OPEC's actions, GDP vs GDI, current momentum in geographies, US housing market, prospects of Europe bringing inflation, and a four-day working week in Germany.