Michael Gapen

Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley, dives into the Fed's future actions amidst inflation concerns and a slowing economy. He argues the Fed will hold rates steady initially but will eventually cut more than expected due to factors like tariffs impacting consumer spending. Gapen discusses how increasing oil prices could influence inflation rates and how these dynamics might affect treasury yields and the U.S. dollar. His insights reveal a complex interaction of policies and international events shaping market expectations.

Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley, shares expert insights on the implications of Chair Powell's remarks from the Jackson Hole meeting. He discusses the Fed’s shift toward a more cautious monetary policy, emphasizing the delicate balance between managing inflation and supporting employment. Gapen highlights the potential for gradual interest rate adjustments, considering the uncertainty of economic conditions and recession risks. His in-depth analysis underscores the critical nature of upcoming policy decisions.

Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, shares insights on inflation dynamics. He predicts that tariffs will push U.S. core inflation toward 3% by year's end. Gapen discusses the impact of immigration controls on sustained services inflation and emphasizes that while labor markets may be weak, consumer spending remains robust. He highlights how firms are cutting costs by reducing labor and profits, and examines the Federal Reserve's shift towards a neutral policy in response to these pressures.

In this insightful discussion, Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley, dives into the implications of the Fed's recent rate cut. He analyzes the risks in the labor market highlighted by a significant slowdown in hiring. Gapen emphasizes the delicate balance the Fed must strike between supporting job growth and managing inflation. The conversation also touches on market reactions, exploring how investors are pricing future cuts and adjusting to the changing economic landscape.

Join Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist, as he dives into the murky waters of trade policy and tariff impacts on the U.S. economy. He discusses recent trade agreements with Japan and Europe and their potential to stabilize tariffs. Gapen also examines inflation effects on lower and middle-income households and analyzes current tariffs' consequences on GDP and market behavior. His insights help clarify the uncertainty surrounding future trade policies, making it a vital listen for anyone tracking economic trends.