Michael Gapen

Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Economist, on Fed policy, inflation dynamics, and the dollar’s moves. Gil Luria, DA Davidson’s Head of Technology Research, on Microsoft and Meta earnings, AI exposure, ad growth, and tech valuations. Multiple short conversations cover Fed strategy, currency swings, cloud and AI trends, and who stands to benefit from near-term AI profits.

Jens Eisenschmidt, Morgan Stanley’s Europe chief, discusses uneven euro‑area growth and German fiscal levers. Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley’s Asia chief, focuses on China’s deflation risks, RMB policy and export‑led recovery. Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley’s U.S. chief, covers consumer spending, AI‑led CapEx and how investment and tariffs shape growth.

Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley, dives into the Fed's future actions amidst inflation concerns and a slowing economy. He argues the Fed will hold rates steady initially but will eventually cut more than expected due to factors like tariffs impacting consumer spending. Gapen discusses how increasing oil prices could influence inflation rates and how these dynamics might affect treasury yields and the U.S. dollar. His insights reveal a complex interaction of policies and international events shaping market expectations.

Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley, shares insights on the U.S. growth outlook and inflation dynamics, predicting modest growth but cautioning against over-reliance on AI-driven expansion. Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist, discusses Japan's macro outlook and how currency fluctuations could force the Bank of Japan to adjust its policies. Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe Economist, analyzes upcoming inflation data in the eurozone and argues that wage disinflation could lead to European Central Bank rate cuts as early as this year.

Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley, shares expert insights on the implications of Chair Powell's remarks from the Jackson Hole meeting. He discusses the Fed’s shift toward a more cautious monetary policy, emphasizing the delicate balance between managing inflation and supporting employment. Gapen highlights the potential for gradual interest rate adjustments, considering the uncertainty of economic conditions and recession risks. His in-depth analysis underscores the critical nature of upcoming policy decisions.

Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, shares insights on inflation dynamics. He predicts that tariffs will push U.S. core inflation toward 3% by year's end. Gapen discusses the impact of immigration controls on sustained services inflation and emphasizes that while labor markets may be weak, consumer spending remains robust. He highlights how firms are cutting costs by reducing labor and profits, and examines the Federal Reserve's shift towards a neutral policy in response to these pressures.

In this insightful discussion, Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley, dives into the implications of the Fed's recent rate cut. He analyzes the risks in the labor market highlighted by a significant slowdown in hiring. Gapen emphasizes the delicate balance the Fed must strike between supporting job growth and managing inflation. The conversation also touches on market reactions, exploring how investors are pricing future cuts and adjusting to the changing economic landscape.

Join Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist, as he dives into the murky waters of trade policy and tariff impacts on the U.S. economy. He discusses recent trade agreements with Japan and Europe and their potential to stabilize tariffs. Gapen also examines inflation effects on lower and middle-income households and analyzes current tariffs' consequences on GDP and market behavior. His insights help clarify the uncertainty surrounding future trade policies, making it a vital listen for anyone tracking economic trends.

Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley, shares his insights on the Federal Reserve’s evolving policies. He discusses the Fed's shift from risk-management rate cuts to a data-dependent approach, emphasizing the implications for inflation and the cooling labor market. Gapen highlights the technical factors affecting job reports and predicts that tariffs will peak inflation by 2026. He also outlines forecasts for upcoming rate cuts and the market's reaction, noting the interplay between buying the rumor and selling the fact.

Join Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist, as he delves into the nuanced impact of tariffs on the economy and the bond markets. Gapen discusses how ongoing negotiations have shifted investor focus, with implications for inflation and consumer spending. He reveals how some companies are absorbing costs rather than passing them onto consumers, and examines the potential for Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments in response to economic growth scenarios. The conversation highlights the intricate link between tariffs, fiscal policy, and future financial outcomes.