Epstein Backlash Could Fracture Trump’s Coalition + Could AOC Become President? + Will Israel Divide Democrats

Chuck Todd begins with the story that won’t quit: Jeffrey Epstein. He explains why failing to release the files amounts to a major broken campaign promise to Donald Trump’s base and why it could fracture the Republican coalition if they can’t find a resolution by the time the house reconvenes in September. He also addresses the resolution to his Google AI debacle and highlights the challenges and opportunities being presented to independent parties.

Then, Semafor's editor-in-chief, Ben Smith joins Chuck to discuss the evolving media landscape and the challenges facing modern journalism. Smith explains Semafor's mission to operate without paywalls while producing network-quality content, and explores how new technology causes media to fragment before consolidating. The conversation delves into the transition from print to digital journalism, the incentive structures that drive sensationalized content for clicks, and how the current fragmented media environment mirrors pre-World War II politics rather than the more stable Cold War era.

The discussion also covers major political developments, including the implications of New York City's mayoral race results and what they reveal about energy on the political left. Smith and Todd analyze the prospects of various Democratic figures like AOC and Hakeem Jeffries, the ongoing divisions within the Democratic Party over Israel-Palestine, and Trump's immigration policies that appear to be testing voter patience. They conclude by examining whether America's polarized politics are being exported to Israel or if Israel's political dynamics are a preview of America's future, while touching on the broader question of whether wealthy elites recognize the growing populist sentiment against them.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment!

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Introduction

02:45 Trump can’t shake the Epstein story

04:00 Some Republican voters have been “conditioned” on Epstein conspiracy

06:00 Trump voters will view Epstein files as a broken campaign promise

08:30 Republican members of congress are breaking with Trump

10:15 Shutting down the house made the problem worse

12:30 Trump has made his relationship with Epstein the story

14:15 J.D. Vance’s response to birthday card was BAD

16:00 Trump fed deep state conspiracies, now he’s becoming the deep state

17:30 This story could blow over by the fall, or could stick for a long time

20:15 Trump can’t blame the mainstream media to distract

22:00 If they don’t rip the band-aid off, the Republican party could fracture

23:30 Trump should tell Mike Johnson to reconvene the house and deal with it

24:00 Google’s AI has fixed incorrect report of Chuck having Parkinson’s

26:15 Delta Airlines announces that they’ll be using AI to set fares

27:30 Surveillance pricing is predatory

29:00 Roy Cooper will run for senate in NC, will Lara Trump?

31:00 The demographic makeup of independent voters

33:00 The best constituency for independent candidates is young voters

34:30 Ballot access is the biggest hurdle for independent candidates

35:30 Semafor's Ben Smith joins the Chuck ToddCast!

37:30 New tech causes media to fragment, then consolidate

38:30 Semafor's mission and approach to reporting

41:00 Why has Semafor decided to operate without a paywall?

44:30 Independent outlets can produce network quality content

46:00 Journalists owning their own content and reporting

49:00 The bumpy transition from print journalism to digital

51:00 There's always a version of mainstream media that's dying

53:15 The Cold War stabilized our politics, our current politics is like pre-WW2

54:30 The current media model is incentivized to spread lies for clicks

55:45 Pedophilia is central to every right wing conspiracy about the left

57:30 When does this Epstein firestorm end?

58:00 Sexual smears have been central to politics for centuries

59:45 NYC Mayor race result will reverberate around the world

1:00:45 Mamdani win shows where the real energy is on the left

1:03:30 Democratic leaders failed by letting Cuomo become the candidate

1:06:30 Would Hakeem Jeffries have been the strongest mayoral candidate?

1:07:30 Surprising that Schumer still wants to be senate leader?

1:08:45 AOC's prospects if she runs for president?

1:10:30 AOC is one of the best political athletes in congress

1:12:30 Voters on both sides have a "burn it down" mentality

1:13:45 Democrats will likely move Iowa back to the first primary slot

1:15:00 Progressive candidates have struggled in South Carolina

1:16:30 History won't be a guide to the next election

1:18:30 The internal divide over Israel will factor into the Democratic primary

1:22:00 Pro-palestinian voices in media actually have been silenced

1:24:00 Is Israel's politics our future or did we export our politics to Israel?

1:26:30 Trump is doing what he promised on immigration and voters don't like it

1:28:00 Could Trump turn on Stephen Miller on the immigration issue

1:29:30 Who is Semafor's competitor?

1:31:00 Do the wealthy realize the pitchforks are coming for them?

1:36:45 Chuck's thoughts on interview with Ben Smith

1:37:00 Ask Chuck

1:37:15 Has Rob Manfred failed to hold teams to major league standards?

1:47:00 Will we ever see a sitting US president get primaried and lose?

1:49:45 Where does all the money collected from tariffs go?

1:51:15 Why don't parties draft celebrities to run in non competitive states?

1:57:15 What if AI mistakenly declares someone dead?

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Matt

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