Jaime Sevilla, Director of Epoch AI, dives into the intricacies of AI forecasting and compute trends. He discusses the exponential growth in computational power and its implications for AI development. The conversation highlights the tight relationship between algorithmic improvements and scaling, considering whether scaling is the key to achieving AGI. Sevilla also tackles challenges in GPU production and the importance of transparent AI training processes. Get ready for some thought-provoking insights into the future of artificial intelligence!

Jaime Sevilla is the Director of Epoch, a team of researchers investigating and forecasting the development of advanced AI. This is his second time on the podcast. Over the next few episodes, we will be exploring the potential for catastrophe cause by advanced artificial intelligence. Why? First, you might think that AI is likely to become transformatively powerful within our lifetimes. Second, you might think that such transformative AI could result in catastrophe unless we’re very careful about how it gets implemented. This episode is about understanding the first of those two claims. Fin spoke with Jaime about: We've seen a crazy amount of progress in AI capabilities in the last few months; even weeks. How should we think about that progress continuing into the future? How has the amount of compute used to train AI models been changing over time? What about algorithmic efficiency? Will data soon become a bottleneck in training state-of-the-art text models? Further reading is available on our website: hearthisidea.com/episodes/sevilla If you have any feedback, you can get a free book for filling out our new feedback form. You can also get in touch through our website or on Twitter. Consider leaving us a review wherever you're listening to this — it's the best free way to support the show. Thanks for listening!