Join Harry Crane, a renowned Professor of Statistics at Rutgers University, and Luca Dellanna, author of 'Ergodicity,' as they explore the intricate dance of probability and statistics. They discuss the challenges of teaching these concepts effectively and the role of prediction markets in forecasting. Delve into the significance of base rates in investment strategies and discover the Kelly Criterion for optimal betting. The conversation also touches on cognitive biases and the interconnectedness of market behavior and political outcomes, offering valuable insights for decision-making.