Cam Harvey

Cam Harvey, inventor of inverted yield curve recession signal, shares insights on his discovery of the signal in the bond market in the 1980s. The 10-year Treasury yield and 3-month Treasury yield spread has a perfect track record of preceding recessions. Harvey predicts a potential economic slowdown in the first and second quarter of 2024. The podcast discusses the effectiveness of the yield curve in forecasting recessions, the causal relationship between the inverted yield curve and recessions, and the theory behind it and the 2008 financial crisis.