Vaden Masrani and Ben Chugg, co-hosts of the Increments Podcast, hold a PhD in statistics and machine learning, exploring the fiery debate between Bayesian and Popperian epistemology. They discuss the challenges of quantifying catastrophic risks like nuclear war and asteroid impacts. The conversation dives into the implications of probability in decision-making and its role in existential threats. They also critique traditional methods, emphasizing the significance of epistemology in shaping our understanding of knowledge, prediction markets, and artificial intelligence.