In this engaging conversation, Arnold Brooks, an expert in prediction markets, joins economist Robin Hanson and philosopher Agnes Callard. They dive into the intriguing clash between polls and prediction markets, unpacking how betting dynamics can influence forecasting accuracy. The discussion touches on the roles of informed and uninformed traders in these markets and the societal value derived from structured betting. They also reflect on how ancient oracle practices compare to modern decision-making tools, showcasing the shift toward crowd-sourced wisdom.
