Transistor Radio Episode 1: TSMC's Q4 2021 Earnings
Jan 28, 2022
Dylan and Doug dive into TSMC's impressive Q4 results, revealing a surprising $40–44B capex plan and a bullish revenue forecast. They explore the rising importance of lagging-edge nodes amid shifts in demand from sectors like automotive and IoT. The discussion touches on AMD and NVIDIA's strategies amid supply constraints, as well as the implications of Intel's aggressive roadmap. The podcast also highlights the fragile supply chains and commoditized suppliers shaping the semiconductor landscape, while connecting it all to the growing demand for advanced computing solutions.
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TSMC's Bullish Revenue And CapEx Guide
- TSMC guided long-term revenue growth to 15–20% and raised CapEx to $40–44B, signaling an industry-wide acceleration.
- That implies both revenue acceleration and price increases, boosting margins and capacity for leading and lagging-edge nodes.
Lagging Edge Is Strategic, Not Obsolete
- TSMC is investing more in lagging-edge (28nm and older) because those nodes now drive mainstream demand like automotive and IoT.
- Lagging-edge can be more cost-effective and is increasingly critical across multiple markets.
Ramp Type Determines WFE Winners
- Different fab strategies change equipment demand: TSMC ramps known nodes while Intel must spend more on metrology for many new nodes.
- That shifts wafer fab equipment winners toward inspection and process-control players during large-risk ramps.