Michelle Lam discusses China's economic data, Peter Elstrom talks about Japan's chipmaking plans, and David Finnerty covers global market reactions. Topics include China's economic recovery, Japan's semiconductor subsidies, and the impact of US and China economic data on global markets.
China's economic recovery sees improvements in exports and manufacturing but struggles with weak consumer demand due to property sector challenges.
Policymakers in China aim for a balanced approach to stimulate growth, focusing on sustainable measures over supply-side stimulus.
Deep dives
Chinese Economy and Government Stimulus
The podcast discusses the recent PMI numbers from China, indicating improvements in exports and manufacturing but continued weakness in consumer spending. Despite the positive data, consumer demand remains low due to challenges in the property sector. The government has issued special CGPs to support infrastructure investments to stimulate the economy. There is a call for more fiscal stimulus, like issuing consumption coupons, to boost household income and encourage spending.
Policy Responses and Cautionary Approach
The conversation delves into the cautious stance of policymakers in China regarding stimulating economic growth. While there are discussions about measures such as issuing consumption coupons or cutting taxes to support household income, there is hesitation in implementing these policies. Policymakers aim to balance stimulating investment without compromising sustainability and are wary of overreliance on supply-side stimulus, emphasizing a measured and sustainable approach.
Housing Market and Policy Implications
The podcast explores the challenges in the Chinese housing market and its impact on consumer spending. Despite some improvements in property transactions, concerns remain about the sustainability of the housing market recovery. While there have been relaxations in housing restrictions, there are doubts about the long-term sustainability given weak job and income expectations. The podcast reflects skepticism about the effectiveness of current policies and anticipates continued pressure for prices to correct in top tier cities.
Featuring: Michelle Lam, Greater China Economist, Societe Generale, joins the program from Hong Kong to discuss the latest economic data out of China and how it influences China's economic recovery. Peter Elstrom, Bloomberg Executive Editor for Asia technology, joins us from Tokyo to discuss Japan's plan to onshore contact chipmaking and the subsidies program it is using to boost production. David Finnerty, Bloomberg FX and Rates Strategist, joins the program to discuss how global markets are reacting to economic data out of the US and China.