The Intelligence from The Economist Fortunes of war: is Russia’s economy slowing?
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Sep 29, 2025 
Callum Williams, a Senior economics writer at The Economist, discusses the surprising resilience of Russia's labor market despite sanctions and hints at a deceleration of growth. He delves into how fiscal stimulus has masked the true impact of these sanctions and examines the effectiveness of new measures. Joining him is Alice Su, a Senior international correspondent, who highlights innovative protest tactics in China, the rise of demonstrations driven by economic grievances, and the government's response to dissent, combining creativity and digital diaspora influence.
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Stimulus Drove Russia’s Short-Term Boom
- Russia's rapid post-2022 growth owed more to massive fiscal stimulus than to sanctions failing outright.
- That fiscal boost has faded, and slowing growth reflects withdrawn stimulus and tighter monetary policy.
Sanctions Partly Blunted By Workarounds
- Sanctions likely harmed Russia but government countermeasures and saved reserves largely offset that damage.
- Russia proved flexible at evading some sanctions via trade workarounds and alternative partners.
More Sanctions May Yield Diminishing Returns
- New EU and US sanction rounds may have limited impact because Russia finds barter and neutral intermediaries to sustain trade.
- Historical patterns suggest additional packages often prompt further circumvention rather than decisive economic collapse.