Behind the Money: Wall Street, tech and energy during Trump’s second term
Nov 17, 2024
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Brooke Masters, U.S. financial editor for the Financial Times, and Stephen Morris, San Francisco Bureau Chief for the Financial Times, delve into potential shifts in Wall Street, tech, and energy under a second Trump administration. They discuss the mixed regulatory landscape and the influence of key figures like Elon Musk on financial policies. The duo predicts winners and losers in corporate America, highlighting the contrasting fortunes of fossil fuels versus renewables. Plus, they explore how tech giants might navigate future regulatory challenges.
The banking sector is likely to experience a surge in profitability and deal-making due to anticipated reductions in regulatory oversight under Trump.
Trump's administration may favor traditional energy sources, negatively impacting the renewable energy sector while boosting oil and gas industries.
Deep dives
Impact on Wall Street: A Return to Favor
The banking and finance sector anticipates significant changes following the election of Donald Trump, contrasting sharply with the constraining measures of the previous administration. Under Trump, expectations are high for a reduction in regulatory oversight, especially concerning the Basel III endgame capital requirements. Bank stocks surged as industry optimism returned, indicating a belief in the revival of deal-making and increased profitability. The outlook suggests a lifting of restrictions could rejuvenate market activities, benefiting not only large banks but also private equity firms eager to capitalize on fewer regulatory hurdles.
Opportunities for Tech: A Shift in Regulation
The technology sector is poised for transformation as a new Trump administration likely signifies a relaxation of antitrust regulations and a more favorable stance towards mergers and acquisitions. Over the last four years, tech giants like Google and Microsoft thrived, but faced heightened scrutiny under Biden's regulatory policies. A Trump presidency is expected to reinstate a more permissive environment, encouraging rapid deal-making that could lead to the further consolidation of power among major players. This shift may also create a landscape where venture capitalists are eager to invest, anticipating lucrative exits through sales to larger tech firms.
Energy Sector: Winners and Losers
The election of Donald Trump heralds considerable changes for the energy sector, with the oil and gas industries positioned to thrive under a less regulatory environment. Trump’s previous commitments suggest a rollback of Biden’s climate regulations and increased access to federal lands for drilling. In contrast, the renewable energy sector is likely to suffer as investments and support dwindle with the new administration's focus shifting back to fossil fuels. The anticipated policy changes could also mean a slower pace of growth for renewable sources like solar and wind, as Trump's administration may prioritize traditional energy supplies over alternative ones.
Who will corporate America's winners and losers be under four more years of Donald Trump? This week, the FT’s Brooke Masters, Stephen Morris and Jamie Smyth explain what changes a second Trump administration will bring to three crucial sectors: Wall Street, tech and energy.
On X, follow Brooke Masters (@brookeamasters), Stephen Morris (@sjhmorris), Jamie Smyth (@JamieSmythF) and Michela Tindera (@mtindera07), or follow Michela on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more.