China Unscripted #273 No One Knows How Bad the Chinese Economy Really Is | Christopher Balding
Oct 15, 2024
Christopher Balding, a senior fellow at the Henry Jackson Society and founder of New Kite Data Labs, dives deep into the dire state of China's economy, revealing that even Xi Jinping may not fully grasp the extent of the disaster. He discusses unsustainable debt levels and the looming housing crisis, contrasting government optimism with harsh realities on the ground. The rising youth unemployment is reshaping career choices, while the Communist Party's increasing influence distorts market dynamics. Balding warns of potential instability amidst tightening government control.
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China's Economic Defibrillator
- The Chinese government refers to their stimulus measures with the same word used for defibrillating a dying patient.
- This reveals their serious concern about the economy's state.
Construction Cranes and Debt
- Christopher Balding recalls seeing countless construction cranes in Beijing before the 2008 Olympics.
- This symbolized China's debt-fueled growth, exacerbated by excessive stimulus post-2008.
Patching vs. Stimulating
- Much of China's stimulus is going towards patching existing problems, not stimulating growth.
- This is like "feeding a morbidly obese guy [...] a double cheeseburger" before bypass surgery.