New Home Insights Podcast
Episode 100: John Burns Reflects on Housing Cycles, Market Trends, and the Future of Real Estate
Oct 25, 2024
John Burns, Founder and CEO of John Burns Research and Consulting, shares his expertise on housing market trends and future predictions. He reflects on long-term cycles and significant events affecting real estate, discussing the impact of rising mortgage rates on affordability. The conversation dives into the evolution of the single-family rental market and the demographic shifts between millennials and baby boomers, emphasizing the pressing housing challenges. They also explore innovative solutions like manufactured housing and the growing demand for density and urban amenities in suburban areas.
57:58
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Quick takeaways
- Understanding historical housing cycles reveals how interest rates and economic turmoil significantly impact home prices over the decades.
- Job growth is a crucial economic indicator driving housing demand, overshadowing the influence of mortgage rates on market stability.
Deep dives
Celebrating Long-Term Housing Trends
The discussion emphasizes the significance of understanding housing cycles over extended periods, specifically in the context of the previous few decades. Historical trends dating back to the 1970s are explored, with a focus on how interest rates influenced home prices during times of economic turmoil. For instance, despite interest rates soaring to 18% in the 1980s, home prices remained steady due to high inflation. The conversation addresses past government interventions that led to real estate booms and busts, highlighting a consistent pattern where regulatory changes can dramatically impact market conditions.
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