The Jason & Scot Show - E-Commerce And Retail News EP323 - 2025 Predictions and NRF Big Show 2025 Recap
Overexposed Retail Geek
- Jason Goldberg spoke at NRF Big Show four times due to overexposure.
- He debated retail media networks, arguing most will fail.
Retail Media Networks
- Retail media networks are not as ubiquitous as claimed.
- Third-party marketplaces hold most of the retail media money.
AI in Retail
- AI is driving efficiencies in retail, making processes faster and cheaper.
- Agentic AI is predicted to disrupt commerce, potentially changing shopping experiences.
The expended edition of this podcast is 80 minutes long. We're sorry, if we had more time, we'd make a shorter podcast.
- 0:00 - 27:30 NRF Big Show Recap
- 27:30 - 59:00 Recap of 2024 Predictions
- 59:00 - 80:00 2025 Predictions
Watch a complete recap of NRF Big Show 2025 here 2024 Predictions Recap
Jason:
- Retail Media Networks go In-store. At least 1 top 20 retailer launches a digital in-store ad network YES
- AI is even hotter at end of 2024 than now. Most text boxes in E-Com are GenAI powered. A least one retailer has an AI based auto-replenishment solution with significant adoption. YES
- Bifurcation drives at least two more retail bankruptcies, including 1 national specialty retailer, and one general merchandise/dept store. (two top 50 retailers) YES
- China companies focus more on West and get more traction. Shein successful IPO. Temu US gets to at least 75% of target US E-Com. No
- Grocery E-Commerce goes from $95B to $125B in 2024 (after being down in 2023 per Bricks meets clicks). No
Jason Score: 3.0
Scot:
- Amazon relaunches Alexa on a native LLM No
- Temu falters as people realize it’s wish 2.0 No
- RMN is currently $52b, growing 20% y/y, accelerates in 24 to 30% and $67b (coresight has the 52 datapoint) No
- Instacart who’s stock IPO’d at $33 and now is $23, solves ads and pops to 40 YES
- While everyone thinks Shein/Temu takes share from Amazon, they end up hurting Nordstrom, Macys and Target instead - materially (10%+) focus on apparel, maybe take target out? Yes
Scot Score: 2.0
In a rare upset victory, Jason takes the 2024 predictions crown! But can he keep it?
2025 Predictions
Jason:
- Shein & Temu are NOT impacted by changes to De Minimus (which either don’t happen or are ineffective). They ay be impacted by Tik Top Shops and/or Trade War tarrifs but not by changes to De Minimus.
- Tik Tok is not permanently banned in US (prediction made before scheduled ban was to take place). Tik Tok Shops is fastest growing $1B+ retailer in 2025.
- A major auto manufacturer launches a DTC offering in the US in 2025 (other than Tesla).
- Retail Media Networks undergo consolidation in 2025 as smaller retailers realize they can't go it alone.
- Live-streaming/VR/Voice Commerce are all materially insignificant in 2025. No financial evidence that consumers care about green or purpose driven brand with their wallets.
Bonus: - AI Agents hottest trend in commerce (but I don’t know how to measure it)
Scot:
- Facebook acquires eBay puts them out of their misery finally
- Temu loses its newness/out of the honeymoon period and people realize it’s a gimmick - down 20% in 25 vs. 24, even more with tariffs
- AI agents become a double edge sword for retailers (headless/composable) vs. no ux, I predict 10 large retailers block them, but the rest embrace
- Marketplaces have a new leg of expansion into a variety of places even an LLM - let’s call it 5 new larger retailers
- Personalization is out, memory is in, but still silo’d -
Bonus: AI automates and optimizes the supply chain in ways we humans can’t, or at least analyzes the data in such a way -OR could be quantum computing.
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Episode 323 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday, January 23rd, 2025.
Transcropt
Jason: [0:23] Welcome to the Json and Scott show this is episode 323 being recorded on Thursday January 23rd that's a lot of 2 threes I'm your host Jason retail gee Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo.
Scot: [0:37] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott show listeners for episode 323 being recorded on 123, Jason you are in the post honeymoon phase of the NRF Big Show 1 of my and I'll have to be honest with listeners kind of not favorite shows because it's in New York during January and I'm allergic to cold weather and I always have a hard time getting there and out because of the snow and then also it's a show that's over weekend so it kind of crushes the whole work life balance thing so hope you had a fun 1 I was not I did not attend this year.
Jason: [1:14] Very often it's over a holiday weekend it's like.
Scot: [1:17] And yeah so in the holiday weekend as well for for fun yeah.
Jason: [1:20] Yeah yeah I think for as long as I can remember we've been going to that show and complaining about it and the the the usual answer is of course due to its 114 year old show we're not changing it because you're whining um, which fair enough, I will point out good news for you Scott global warming it doesn't snow in New York anymore so it hasn't it was cold but like there there used to be an annual blizzard and they literally haven't had any snow in like the last 3 years which is a little spooky, um and I have great news for you if if you thought it was a lot to go to 1 in RF a year guess what we get this year.
Scot: [1:57] 2 nrf's.
Jason: [1:58] 3 NRF or depending on how you count 4 NS.
Scot: [2:02] Whoa are they going to call them Big Show small show Medium show.
Jason: [2:05] No so for a while they've had so they have a few other shows so they have the NRF Big Show which is what we're talking about in in New York in January 114 years old 40,000 people at 10 mostly Brazilians, they've had what I'll call the small show which is technically now called NRF Nexus it's had some other names in the past that's in Southern California in the summer and I really like that show I'll be I'll be at that show, I'll I'll be doing a number of gigs there and I encourage people to go there because it's a way better boondoggle we all hang out and eat good food on the beach and, in his way less stressful than than in our Big Show.
Scot: [2:41] I can sign up for that yeah that's uh no blizzards sign me up.
Jason: [2:45] Trono in Rancho Palo Verdes it's a good it's a good spot it's where Rico started.
Scot: [2:48] Oohnice.
Jason: [2:50] Um they have like a loss prevention show which is probably not relevant to mow most of our listeners but the big news is they are the Big Show has gone International so last year they had Big Show Asia for the first time in Singapore I was not there but it was by all accounts a big success and so, this year we'll have year 2 of Big Show Singapore, and then they're now expanding to Europe so this September will have NRF Big Show Paris. So Scott if you want to go well you know my my corporate headquarters is there my boss is there so we'll we'll host everyone in his office on the shampoo Jose.
Scot: [3:29] I would love that I have a lot to chat with your boss about I feel that you're being shorted on your title and it's been too long we need to expand your title so that's going to be my number 1 you know point on the agenda.
Jason: [3:41] Yes it is high on my list to get you in front of our tours to renegotiate my package.
Scot: [3:47] Yeah I'm there I will I will Ari Gold this thing and we will get.
Jason: [3:50] Yeah I know he our tour listens to every episode so be ready our tour he's coming Scott's coming for you.
Scot: [3:55] Yep I got your I got your number first of all I'm going to loosen him up with some wine and cheese French people like that right and some croissants boom.
Jason: [4:03] Yeah but I kind of don't think you can loosen a French person up with 1.
Scot: [4:07] True it may be a bad strategy.
Jason: [4:09] Yeahfun strategy but it just may not work out the way you hope.
Scot: [4:14] Well how is the show I saw that you were you know doing some really good instagramable pictures out in front of some signs and looking spelt and you had your cool eyewear rocking did you how did how are all the balls and Galas and the and you did a bunch of content give us a give us a rundown what we're give us the behind the scenes.
Jason: [4:35] Well so the number 1 takeaway from internet Big Show is that retail geek is Overexposed so I apparently they couldn't get any good speakers this year because you haven't been going so I was on stage 4 times which is more Jason than anyone should want.
Scot: [4:51] There can be an honorary Kardashian if you keep that.
Jason: [4:54] Yeah yeah I I'm not sure that's that'll be 1 more item off my bucket list honorary Kardashianthe, so I mean the show went well it continues to grow it felt super vibrantit was very it was cold but clear.
Jason: [5:13] The the kind you know you and I have been to so many of these shows that I feel like, somewhat predictable at this point for those that haven't been a big show it's a heavy networking show there's a lot of private events that maybe aren't even published and are invite only and, it's 1 of the the the few, events where I get all those invites so you're right like you know I I went to a lot of dinners and a lot of Galas and saw a lot of, mutual friends that are of course ask about you and are bitter that I'm there and you're not um but it's a lot of fun to catch up with people and certainly you know I got to a chance to talk Shop with a lot of people which is 1 of the big benefits to me, you know there are some interesting on-stage content I'm not going to do a super deep recap on the podcast because, in in NF Big Show recap would be an hour and the good news is I recorded an hour webinar yesterday so in the show notes I'll put that on and if you want if you want an hour of a big show recap, you you can get it there but like at a super high level kind of 3 3 big takeaways that that we highlighted in the recap from Big Show the, continuing to be 1 of the big topics that all these retail shows that they're all heavily leaning into I have some controversial mixed feelings about our.
Jason: [6:32] Exuberant over retail media Networks, so every every retail on the planet is launching 1 every V you know there's a thousand vendors that somehow raise money selling like some service for retail media networks all the the retailers now come to these shows and have booths so there's Giant, Amazon Walmart booths at these these shows trying to sell people ads they've they've kind of turned into media shows, and so NF has a whole extra day of the show if it wasn't fun enough to go over the weekend you can now attend retail media day which is all day Saturday the day before the show starts on Sunday, so a lot of talk about retail media networks a lot of vendors a lot of content on the stages. 1 of my biggest session I did a a session on the featured stage and it was a new format for them it was a debate.
Jason: [7:24] And so they had a much smarter sort of a retail thought leader Christina Russo and I on stage together and they they pulled all of, the the popular retail Talking Heads and ask them to surprise us with questions and then we debated the answers and so longtime friend of the show tsukareta had a question like hey Jason aren't all these retail media networks a scam, and, I I kind of felt like I think she thought she was that was a gotcha question for me because she I think she thought like working for a agency that you know is generally super excited about all media formats and has, you know hundreds of people at the moment working on retail media networks I think she thought that would be a controversial question, I basically answered like it's absolutely a scam and the vast majority of all these are going to fail, so I think that probably surprised Christine a little bit that she had to take the the pro retail media position after I after I jumped in on the con position. But, there is a lot of talk about retail media networks it's going to show up in our predictions I'm sure there are people making a lot of money on retail media networks but they also they're not going to be as ubiquitous they're not going to translate to the small retailers as well as everyone thinks and, as you and I know the dirty secret is like all the retail media money is in third-party marketplaces it's all those third-party.
Scot: [8:46] Yayanother win for third-party marketplaces.
Jason: [8:50] Yeah it's almost like you saw all this stuff coming like 20 years ago.
Scot: [8:54] Yeah yeah they uh.
Jason: [8:57] Until you get a good new idea I'm going to keep giving you props for the old 1.
Scot: [9:00] Okay I appreciate ityou can do my negotiating with my boss.
Jason: [9:02] Yeah uh soyeah I'm not doing that because I've met herum.
Scot: [9:09] Yeah she's tough.
Jason: [9:11] Yeah but fair tough but fair. So 1 big Trend retail media networks love them or hate them there's a lot of discussion about them a lot of a lot of activity in that space the most predictable big trend is of course AI so, half the Boost of the show you if you if you didn't read carefully you would actually think it was an Nvidia Booth they had like, bigger logos than half the exhibitors they they did a keynote with John furner John's the CEO of Walmart us and and the the head of retail at Nvidia was on stage with him talking about all these, these interesting retail use cases in 30 seconds or less the Takeaway on AI is, there's a ton of successful AI efficiency stories where retailers and brands are doing something in Commerce they've always been doing but AI allows them to do it way better faster and cheaper than before and so there's, there's increasingly you know tons of money being saved by using AI for efficiencies.
Jason: [10:13] And that that there's some pretty interesting ones and some pretty clever ones and a lot of smart vendors, at the show coming up with that stuff but the the big prediction the coming very soon part of AI That's more game-changing that's sort of a new shopping experience that didn't exist before, is agent-based Commerce it's what so-called agentic AI so if you went to Salesforce Microsoft Google, sap, Amazon's Booth like the the biggest words in the booth were agentic Ai and the the you know all all these big vendors are in a knife fight if I know you follow the, the kind of core AI space, you know openai launched their agent this week which is uh operator which is super interesting and exciting perplexity launched their agent of course you know Salesforce and Microsoft have, uh and Google all have big big plays and agents and so, I'm I'm relatively bullish on on agents disrupting Commerce and fundamentally changing some shopping experiences and breaking search for example I'm making search a lot less important and a lot less relevant.
Jason: [11:25] I think all that could happen I think it's really risky to think about the time Horizon for that and at the moment if you're familiar with the gardener hype cycle, agents are kind of still C climbing up the the hype Peak like they have not fallen into the trough of disillusionment yet.
Scot: [11:45] Yeah we're going to talk about agents in the predictions so.
Jason: [11:48] Hello I should have I should have known I should have held some of my.
Scot: [11:50] Uh passion a lot of them are kind of like glass-based which I think's interesting but you and I know you can't have a great shopping experience just you know kind of looking like you're a browserso if you say you know hey.
Jason: [12:02] Yeah I think that's a fast early wave to proof of concept A lot of this stuff but that's that can't be how it all works in the long run.
Scot: [12:09] Yeah I'm excited you know I've had a fair amount of exposure to the perplexity and it it's okay on a surface level but it falls apart on some basics in our world and then I think I think the glass-based nature of Operator by glass I mean it has to scrape it's it's not.
Jason: [12:22] It it acts like a human clicking buttons on a browser.
Scot: [12:25] Yeah yeah so we'll see ya.
Jason: [12:28] Microservices and apis.
Jason: [12:30] The so that that was a super interesting 1 and then the third big topic from NRF Big Show was just kind of the state of the industry NRF released, their final data for annual sales the US Department of Commerce came out with their data the day after the show, and you know everybody in the hallways talking about like hey how'd you do did you do well did you not do well what's your budget look like for this year or are you spending more than last year less than last year what's your forecast like and so there and what the heck do you think is going to happen in the new Administration and how is that going to affect all of your business plans right and so there's a lot of, those kind of conversations and and again go listen to the the the interf recap for the Deep dive but the the super high level is, it's it's kind of mixed mixed news in 2024 we sold 7.4 trillion dollars worth of stuff which is a ton of stuff, but the NRF doesn't like to talk about that retail number they like to talk about core retail which is, all of retail sales less automobiles gas and restaurants so 2024 we sold 5.3 trillion dollars worth of stuff core retail stuff, that is up 3.6% from the previous yearso the question you might ask is hey Jason is 3.6% good, and the answer is it's okay NRF predicted that this year we would grow between 2 and a half and 3 and a half percent so 3.6 is above the top end of, prediction yeah.
Scot: [13:58] A small butt I said we they crushed their number.
Jason: [14:01] Uh so they beat interest prediction the 10-year average growth which you know growth is slowing down a little bit but the 10 year average growth is 4.1% so 3.6 is less than 4.1, last year's number was 3.9 so 3.6 is less than than 3.9 but so all these numbers are kind of in the range it's a huge number so you know a tenth of a percent is is Meaningful.
Jason: [14:25] But the real butt is half of all that growth half of that 3.6% growth Amazon Walmart T-Mobile and Tik Tok shops, so you pull those those 5 retailers out and is a way below average year for the rest of retail, and add on top of that that, consumers were hugely value seeking in 2024 they were trading down a less expensive Goods so we sold more or less expensive stuff which is a lower margin the discount rate was uncharacteristically high so we sold stuff at deeper discounts and so you know all these retailers that are not 1 of those top 5 Growers.
Jason: [15:04] Had a mediocre sales year and an even worse profitability year and so you know in the hallways the talk was oh the overall industry maybe did okay we didn't do so well and our Focus next year is, economic fundamentals like austerity we're we're trying to save money wherever we can we're not doing big grandiose plans bunch of retailers are likely closing stores and we've already seen that play out in the week since nrfa Macy's has announced, another huge wave of of store closuresit's it's going to be a challenging year in retail and I'm not sure the, the vendors have fully felt it yet but like when I hear all these retailers talking about how they're cutting back on all their plans and then I go look at the 450 vendors that are all hoping to sell new it technology to all these retailers, I'm like it's going to be a lean year for all those vendors that are trying to sell new new search engines and new platforms and and new new products and services to all these retailers in 2025.
Scot: [16:07] Yep it's busy out there did the Department of Commerce their their this is where you get the other and then the really good 1 for e-commerce comes out much later has have theywhat what did they say about e-commerce does that come out.
Jason: [16:20] Yeah so so you are correct we get at the moment we havenon-store sales is what it's called um and it, it grew about 10% year-over-year, um so what that likely means is that e-commerce will end up growing at about 7 and a half to 8% is my prediction right nowso so retail grow brick and mortar total retail, grows at 3.6% e-commerce grows at twice that at 7 and a half to 8% so e-commerce is still the fastest growing part it's 1 out of 5 of core retail now right it's over 20% of core retail sales so the law of large numbers is starting to kick in when you and I started doing this retail was still growing at 4% but e-commerce was growing at 20% right over the last 10 years e-commerce has grown at 15% and now we're starting to see it tick down, 7 and a half percent and I I think that's a natural progression as as e-commerce has gotten more mature.
Scot: [17:21] Yeah it does still feel slow like if you'd asked me 20 years ago where it would be in 2005 I would have said oh it will be at 30 or 40%, 20 20% just feels low and it's historically low compared to not historically but it's low compared to like most other countries right so the UK is much higher and.
Jason: [17:41] It depends on what you mean by the most uh there are countries way higher so so there are countries in Europe.
Scot: [17:46] Yeah not in.
Jason: [17:47] Europe is a mixed bag but like UK is higher Asia is much higher it's very hard to count in Asia there's not good data so you you will hear a lot of people say that e-commerce is over 50% in Asia and it might be there are other people that are say that will say it's more like 40% you there's there's a bunch of countries in that kind of 30-ish percent so, you know certainly there's no endemic reason in the United States can't hit those same same kind ofPeakswhat I would say is, not every industry got affected by e-commerce at the same time like like you know I you like to joke about how I started my career at Blockbuster they were they were affected by e-commerce a long time ago right um borders was affected a long time ago Toys R Us pretty long ago Circuit City all those companies you know were affected at a different rate, but there were always new categories that were you know just had this massive adoption of e-commerce that you know kept Goose the number and there are fewer and fewer categories with really small e-commerce today right so it's mostly cars and Grocery and again we're like rightly or wrongly most of us are pulling cars out of the numbers we talked about so, so yeah you know they're just our fewer kind of untapped markets to to to grow.
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Scot: [19:07] Gotcha should we any other uhwhat was like the back room conversations like give us no specifics of course but like what else was so retail media networks a lot of an AI anything else that that is like aon people's minds.
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Jason: [19:22] Yeah I you know I think everyone is like really, concern like there's the a huge variety I know you and I love to talk about politics on this showthere's a huge, collection of potential policy changes in the current Administration again NRF happened the day before Trump took office right and so a lot of the talk is hey are we gonna have way lower income tax and is that going to cause everyone to spend like a drunken sailor are we going to have huge tariffs and start a massive trade war and not be able to sell anything, you know is deregulation going to help us is is Tik Tok gonna get shut down is the minimum is going to get shut down, you know there's a there's a lot of uncertainty 1 of the best attended Keynotes was David Solomon who's the the CEO of Goldman Sachs and him kind of pontificating on the potential impacts of the new Administration on the, on the economy and the the long and the short of it is no 1 really knows there's a bunch of, you know potential policies that would be favorable to the economy there's a bunch of potential policies that might be erosive to the economy you know some of those policies will be easy to enact some of them will be quite difficult to enact and so like on the aggregate, what all is going to happen over the next 2 years and what's that going to do to the economy I think, there's more unsure it's always uncertain and there's more uncertainty at the moment than it feels like they're typically is so you know.
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Jason: [20:50] A lot of folks had a disappointing year last year and then they're staring at a lot of uncertainty this year and it it just creates a general disease.
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Scot: [21:01] Bummer sounds like not a happy ending but this is a fun fact Dave Solomon is a DJ as well.
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Jason: [21:07] I did not know that that did not come up in his in his keynote oddly enough I think he would have like at least.
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Scot: [21:11] I thought maybe he would like uh spend some tunes before and after yeah.
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Jason: [21:15] Picked his own walk-on music I'm sure A-Rod got to pick his own walk-on music so you'd think.
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Jason: [21:23] Oh by the way the, the other big news the internet cave like the NF has always been like a show that was about this content and other shows figured out that you could get way more people to come to your show by having, celebrities and musicians and and so like the shop talk shows always famously have an interesting concert right and so the NRF cave this year and and had a big concert and so we all got to see flow ride up.
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Scot: [21:49] Whoa.
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Jason: [21:50] Yeah now you really regret that you didn't go I know it.
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Scot: [21:53] I did but I've seen you at these things you you go to the event and you have like maybe 1 drink and then you check out and go do email or.
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Jason: [21:59] I make sure I make sure that some people get some selfies with me so I'll show up on the socials and then I do what what has been described to me as an Irish exit.
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Scot: [22:10] Yeah yeah because uis have some slides that were due 3 weeks ago that you're gonna.
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Jason: [22:13] That that is.
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Scot: [22:14] You can work till 1:00.
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Jason: [22:16] Often often true you're actually giving me PTSD by just talking about it.
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Scot: [22:20] Yeah when Jason Goes to these shows the the first thing he does is start with a Starbucks that's a manual that's a must and then, people people that are waiting for slides no to wait at the first Starbucks so he right at the counter after he's ordered there's a line of people waiting for for slides and her ringing him about Decks that are due weeks ago it's hilarious.
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Jason: [22:38] And let me just say as we continue to go further and further author reservation here uh, 1 of 1 of the biggest improvements at the NRF is that the the 2 Starbucks have got at Javits Center which wasn't always true by the way that's exciting to me to just say there are 2 Starbucks at Javits Center the 2 Starbucks have gotten wildly efficient at mobile ordering even at a trade like it used to be this huge cluster of disaster and you you you just have to stand.
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Scot: [23:05] Massive.
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Jason: [23:06] Line for hours and when they turned on mobile order it was highly unreliable and you'd have to wait 30 minutes like it, they've kind of figured it all out now like and so I found it much much easier to I knew exactly how far away I needed to be from the Starbucks to place my order and I walked up and, it just feel you feel like George Jetson when you like.
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Scot: [23:27] Skip the line yeah.
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Jason: [23:29] That whole line and and grab your Starbucks and make it to your next meeting on time with Starbucksuh.
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Scot: [23:34] And if the people are waiting on slides are in line now they have a hard choice to get out of line to bother you for slides or and then you can just dip in and out and they don't have time to catch him so that's.
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Jason: [23:43] People waiting for their slides for me have a lot of hard choicesthe and they're usually disappointed but Scott I feel like you are procrastinating long enough if you haven't thought of any good predictions by now they're not coming to you.
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Scot: [23:58] I think I'm ready I it was tough because, it's a hard time to predict things because there's so much change like oddly when it's kind of slower it's easy to predict stuff so we'll see this will be a fun 1 it's going to you know the rate of change and Chaos makes it hard to make predictions but.
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Jason: [24:15] Yeah I did.
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Scot: [24:15] It's uh that's why we make the big bucks so we have to buckle down and I did it.
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Jason: [24:19] I was in 3 different sessions where the first slide was predictions are very hard especially about the future and and what's which is a great quote what's funny is all 3 of them attributed the quote to a different person.
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Scot: [24:33] You should say also attributing quotes is hardit's harder than predictions.
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Jason: [24:39] Yes so uh so offline I did a deep dive in who actually said it in so we could we could get into it but it came from CERN um but yeah the it was not Mark Twain it was not Yogi Barra.
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Scot: [24:53] The particle accelerator people started.
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Jason: [24:54] Yes yes exactly um.
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Scot: [24:56] Would quote as a body.
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Jason: [24:58] Yeah but the the the VC version of that that quote that I thought was pretty pretty apt for NRF wasthe the pace of innovation seems to be outrunning the pace of adoption.
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Scot: [25:11] Yeah it is yeah it's kind of crazy. I get some of these AI newsletters and I I keep a little running list of things I want to go put you know try out and it's like literally 200 long right now and it's like okaywell I'm not gonna get to all but like maybe you know maybe I'll get to 4 of those.
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Jason: [25:27] I know and I I'm like, the open AI like they dropped their agent it's a at the moment like to get it this month you have to step up to the hundred dollar a month account and there's part of me that like oh this is super interesting and valuable I should just do it but then I know I'm going to use it once and then move on to the other 200 things on my list and it like it just doesn't feel good so part of me is like wait till it drops down on my 20 account.
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Scot: [25:51] Yeah that's just enough where it's kind of unless you're on your uh your work credit card then go crazy.
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Jason: [25:56] Yeah but our as I mentioned our tour is listening to this and so until you negotiate I'm afraid to go there but so predictions about the future are hard what about predictions of the past how how did we do on the predictions from last year.
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Scot: [26:08] Yeah let's go re so as a reminder for those of you that are new to the show every year we make a prediction usually in the January time frame and we then review it and add forward-looking predictions we have a long history of me being better than Jason at this so we'll see if that that holds on and then what we do is we read each others and then grade and then there is a formal, rebuttal period that lasts approximately 90 seconds no longer no less and now I'm just getting we're not a super rules of the road on this but, yeah so I'll go through Jason's for predictions for last year so this was in 2023 Jason predicted these things for 2024.
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Jason: [26:51] Hear him because I don't remember him.
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Scot: [26:53] Jason prediction number 1 1 of your favorite topics you've already talked about retail media networks go in store at least 1 top 20 retailer launches a digital in-store ad Network, I think this is definitely happening I don't know if it's going to I don't know if 1 of the top 20 maybe if I was going to guess I would say maybe Walmart has done that because they seem, Dev screens but they a lot of them are almost like you know Walmart today type things I don't really think I've seen them advertised other stuff, but um I'm going to ask you you can go ahead and rebut away I don't know how to grade you on this 1.
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Jason: [27:30] Yeah so all of my my good friends at Walmart please take note Scott is a legitimate Walmart Shopper and and.
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Scot: [27:36] I love Walmart.
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Jason: [27:37] He does we both do and he has he he is rightly noticed that the ads in your store so yes it did happen e-marker said it was not huge they said about half a billion dollars in in revenue for in-store ads in in 2024 which you know compared to the total size of of retail media is not, huge but Walmart is selling ads on 170,000 screens now a lot of those screens are screens that had up other jobs in the store so things like the TVs and the TV department or the the screens in the deli department but 170,000 screens is still a lot of screens that are in front of 190 million Shoppers that walk in that store every week so Walmart certainly you know makes it on their own a bunch of the European guys have also done it so Tesco sainsbury at Big gers in the UK have done it Home Depot I believe is predominantly in store so they have What's called the Orange apron media Network and it mostly is selling in-store experiences Rose also has the lows media Network which which sells ads in store so I think we gota lot here so I'm giving myself a yes on number 1.
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Scot: [28:47] All right I will agree to that. Jason's prediction for 2024 made in 2023 number 2 AI is even hotter at the end of 2024 than now and in this sentence now means back in 2023 this is so confusing, most I'm I'm making it so clear for our listeners though so most text boxes and e-commerce are G powered at least 1 retailer has an AI based Auto replenishment Solution with significant adoption. I don't see a lot of Johnny AI powered searches I've tried Rufus and that is that is a swing and a miss if you're counting Rufus I'm going to call foul on that.
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Jason: [29:28] So I gotta be honest this is a tricky 1 for me I don't know how I feel about my prediction I will fully disclose I thought, a AI search in particular would be even more ubiquitous by now than it is right so in 1 cents I want to say oh yeah didn't make it objectively like all the things that I sit here sort of did happen so so we could debate about, roof is being an awful experience which I totally agree with Doug Herrington did a keynote in NRF and said that Rufus has answered 500 million queries last year right so.
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Jason: [30:02] That's a lot of queries yeah so so that that Alone 1 would argue you know technically makes my prediction correct Walmart did Roll Out Auto replenishment so Walmart Plus members can get suggestions in their cart based on their past purchases that they did not ask for for for better or worse so so there are some some Auto Replacements in there, Amazon Walmart Tik Tok have all aifi their their search boxes instacart and then, like in particular the grossers are leaning into this Auto replenishment so a lot of the vendors that serve the grocery space there's a company called Alami that does a lot of uh predictive ordering and there is a standalone retailer a direct to Consumer grocery store called Hungry root which is exclusively predictive AI so you don't go shopping for Stuff, you fill out a profile and hungry root decides what to send you based on AI and surprises and Delight You by sending you stuffum.
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Scot: [31:02] You don't go shopping for stuff stuff goes shopping for youshopping powered by AI.
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Jason: [31:07] Shopping becomes implicit so I don't know how to score this like part of me wants to give me half credit like because I I do think, literally everything I said in the prediction happened but like it didn't happen at the scale that I thought it would and it and the experiences are, more meaning nothing Burgers like all those Auto replenishment things I mentioned are super interesting none of them are selling, meaningful volumes of stuff so I don't know part of me wants to go 0.5 on this 1.
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Scot: [31:36] I'm feeling generous you you announced on the show you're taking me to Paris and we're going to meet meet your boss so I'm pretty excited by that trip and we're gonna have wine and cheese so I'm gonna I'm gonna round that 1 up and give it to you.
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Jason: [31:46] Gotcha I I don't you may have already pre-impact conference room at our office and in Paris does not have Wi-Fi but it has a private kitchen and Chef so to give you an idea of our priorities.
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Scot: [31:57] Oh and a view of the Eiffel Tower I I assure you.
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Jason: [32:00] Arctic Triumph like.
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Scot: [32:02] Oh even better.
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Jason: [32:03] Yeah like literally NBC rents my bosses balcony to put their TV cameras for the tour to France. Yeah so we'll sit out there and have fancy glass of French champagne served by the pubis chef but don't hope to search for the internet while you're doing it.
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Scot: [32:20] Yep and then you'll ask me how the cheeses and I'll say Jason this cheese is Gouda.
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Jason: [32:25] And then someone will call and ask for their slides and I'll say I can't send them to you because there's no Wi-Fi at pubisum.
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Scot: [32:29] Perfect.
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Jason: [32:32] Yeah but I'm not bitter awesome so I'm taking the win to a 2 for 2 should we just stop thereoh.
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Scot: [32:38] The the we go to 5 so your number 3 prediction for 2024 made in 2023 bifurcation drives at least 2 more retail bankruptcies including 1 National Specialty retailer in 1 general merchandise slash department storeparenthesis 2 top 50 retailers so I'm going to party city that was in, those in the year like that didn't happen in January that happened like.
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Jason: [33:04] Good news it happened twice.
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Scot: [33:07] Party City twice.
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Jason: [33:08] Party City twice in 2024 yeah uh so the second.
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Scot: [33:11] Count those as your 2.
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Jason: [33:13] I'm I'm gonna count the 2 of those as my specialty retailer but but there were sadly more right so the Container Store Express Jo-Ann's the general Merchant which is not quite as general merchandise as I would like but the the the the general Merchant in my mind that that failed last year was Big Lots.
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Scot: [33:31] Were you with me on this tour we did at Container Store.
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Jason: [33:35] I don't I don't get invited to any of the cool stuff.
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Scot: [33:38] And we were talking to 1 of the sea-level people and I was asking him about e-commerce. Maybe I don't remember and he basically went this long spiel about how they'd never wanted anything on their site that wasn't available in the store and I thought, I said to him that's kind of strange because other people most people view it the other way they have this like concept of this endless aisle and they view having an unconstrained space is he's like what is the customer going to do and they see it on the website and its not available in this toy.
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Jason: [34:06] Yeah I will say that's more.
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Scot: [34:07] Well.
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Jason: [34:08] Uh I I I get that that would be an announcement that would be an atheist to you and to a lot of people and like I think when we think of the most successful e-commerce sites they now have hundreds of millions of skus there are examples out there Target basically only sells, online what they have in the store Costco and Sam's Club only sell online what they have in the clubso the there's ways, there's ways to make either either model work but uh.
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Scot: [34:35] I blame the bankruptcy on it personally I haven't read anything so I'm just gonna I I found it like a strange so I'm going to blame the whole thing.
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Jason: [34:38] But uhyeah I'm not sure Container Store was a a fast-moving early adopter of digital.
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Scot: [34:46] No no no they they just launched their site too so this was like 2012 or something.
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Jason: [34:51] Yeah yeah so sadly I I regret that I got number 3 right.
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Scot: [34:56] Yeah that's kind of an easy 1 to get done you could have done most that's another reason uh number 4China companies so you have 3 right uh 2 TBD, China companies focus more on the west and get more traction shien successfully IPOs, and tiemoue us gets to at least 75% of all us e-commerce I made from that 1 of Target, Target do you mean.
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Jason: [35:23] I meant the retailer Target that the team who was at least 3 quarters as big as Target in e-commerce.
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Scot: [35:29] Okay well we know Sheen did not do.
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Jason: [35:31] Yeah so I'm giving myself a Miss on this because of that right um so China companies focus more on the west, what's interesting is that happened and then it didn't last year so I think there was a eeo last year when, the Chinese economy was doing very poorly pendwa Duo was all in on the US market as the US got less and less friendly to Chinese companies and there's all this talk about banning and all these things they all kind of, de-emphasize the US and move to Europe and other markets so, so I think there was for part of the year a big focus on the west I guess if you count Europe as the west then that definitely happened, shein tried to do an IPO in the US it got kind of they got spooked they tried to move it to the UK there's some talk about them doing 1 in Asia this year and there is still some traction about them coming back to the US so, I don't know what's going to happen with Sheen I obviously didn't get that prediction, right so I'll take the the miss here but I will also say I I wildly underestimated how much better team it would do than Target so, Target sold about 20 billion dollars on the line last year she and sold 54 billion about half of it in the US 42% in the US so so Teemu outsold Target online in the US.
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Scot: [36:48] Wow that's impressive on its own.
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Jason: [36:50] Yeah so a lot of impressive stuff in there I blew it when I threw the IPO into the into the prediction so I'll take the loss.
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Scot: [36:57] Yeah the um so it's interesting because T-Mobile they kind of came on the scene in 22 when they ran a Super Bowl ad right like that's I think the, you knew about them earlier yeah, and then LA and 23 they ran a lot more Super Bowl ads have they announced if they're going to be in so the 23 24 have they announced their 25 Super Bowl plans you probably.
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Jason: [37:22] That they have not in some cases advertisers predisposed what they're doing but a lot of them like to keep it a secret and I believe, team who has never discussed their Super Bowl plans ahead of time they totally were surprised Advertiser in 23 they were the biggest Advertiser in 24 as you you rightly remembered they they bought us huge controversial amount of of add time for the Super Bowl, if memory serves they probably spent like thirty million dollars on media for that 1 day um and then you know everyone in my agency like think, that they're they're Super Bowl presence is just awful because they made the ad themselves and it's you know a Cheesy animated cartoon with a with a you know kind of candy jingle and I have to keep pointing out to them that that adds sold 50 billion dollars worth of stuff which 1 of our clients did that. Um and they don't they don't like that so so let me just say myself and all the creative directors at pubis have a slightly different definition of what makes us successful Super Bowl ad.
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Scot: [38:30] Yeah I'm looking at the list of people that have announced it's a bunch of cpgs as you would imagine and then the only 2 I kind of see out of our world would be GoDaddy which is a stretch and then instacart so.
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Jason: [38:39] Yeah yeah I think I think.
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Scot: [38:40] It'll be uh I think that may be their first did they do 1 last year I don't remember.
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Jason: [38:43] Instacart has done 1 before they're I can't get in all the details but there's going to be a few e-commerce companies that are first-time.
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Scot: [38:50] Ooh breaking news.
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Jason: [38:54] Yeah we will not be at the Super Bowl this year is any football team that I remotely support itmy my my La Chargers like briefly had hope we made it to the playoffs I was wearing a charger Jersey 2 NF this year and we got trounced and then you know my adopted family all my in-laws from Detroit have been super excited about the lines this year and they they took.
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Scot: [39:14] Ooh that was a disappointing 1 yeah yeah okay all right so you are. Yep 344 and then we've got your last 1 the last 1 Number 5 grocery e-commerce goes from 95 billion to 125 billion in 2024after being down in 2024, per bricks meets clicks was that I guess that's the name of a report that you you grocery people love.
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Jason: [39:40] Yeah we do I do not love it but it is the most consistent data I have on on grocery e-commerce and I miss this 1 so, grocery did grow we went from from 95 billion, to 105 billion but we did not get to 125 billionlast time I do really specific easily verifiable predictions.
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Scot: [40:02] Well we we went to a phase where we couldn't verify them and we're just like looking at each other like what do we do so that's that's where the screw from I know you've forgotten so 3 out of 5 we'll give that a 60%, gentlemen see all right you had a bonus live streaming metaverse crypto still not a major thing in e-commerce oh you blew crypto crypto is where it's at, management stops blaming performance on retail crime nope and smaller retail media networks fail, let's see live streaming check metaverse check crypto not major things you got all those rightman I still think management blames.
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Jason: [40:39] I I don't I actually think.
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Scot: [40:40] I saw the Walgreens guy just said.
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Jason: [40:42] He he said it was wrong he said they were wrong so.
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Scot: [40:46] It turns out when you lock everything up in the store people don't buy as much.
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Jason: [40:50] He he absolutely did say that but before he said that the CFO had to say maybe we cried too much about like a literal quote in an earnings call maybe we cried too much about shrink because it was pointed out that while they were locking up all the product allegedly to stop shrink, the amount of shrink they reported on their income statement was lower in 2024 than it was in 2023 um.
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Scot: [41:14] Because they locked up all the productit worked.
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Jason: [41:17] And so then they didn't sell any so there's a catch showing 2 there but like the CFO said said on the air we cried too much about shrink and the NFL the NRF had to retract all of their shrink data and stopped reporting on shrink um so I'm saying it doesn't matter there's no points for the bonus but I'm saying that absolutely happened.
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Scot: [41:37] So that NRF shrink data shrink.
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Jason: [41:40] The NRF has been reporting shrink for 20 years they have a dubious methodology they send a survey to people and say did people steal stuff from you. Yeah and whoever answered that survey, for the last 20 years has answered it exactly the same so the the rate of shrink as reported by the NRF like is what is perfectly consistent for 20 years, um so if you believe in that stated stated survey methodology which we know I do not, then then everybody's way over complaining about shrink because it didn't go up but what happened is a bunch of retailers publicly blame shrink and then the NRF data didn't support that and it was a black eye and so the NRF like literally, a they they reported something that said shrink was way up, and then they had to retract that and say that their data was incorrect and they stopped publishing the survey and said they're going to invent a new better data set and publish it in the future which we haven't seen yet so.
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Scot: [42:39] This seems like Jason working behind the scenes this feels like a someone that Goldberg.
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Jason: [42:43] Saying it's it's a it's a complicated Quagmire of a mess but the takeaway for everyone it's a bonus so we're not arguing for points the takeaway for everyone on on this podcast should be do not put your product and product jail, uh if you have to put your product in product jail just don't carry it.
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Scot: [43:00] Well there's this thing called convenience and if you have to call someone if you're going to the Walgreens for 6 things and you have to call 6 times and have 6 unlocks and it takes 6 hours.
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Jason: [43:09] On a webinar today and the host had all these data sets and 1 of them is convenience is not King and you know he talked about how people are willing to you know get a great links to get what they wanted um and and then you know he asked me like how do you feel about that I said I don't know if convenience is King but I know that inconvenience is Satan.
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Jason: [43:38] Yes yes never never.
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Scot: [43:40] He hates observed measured data that's that's usually wrong.
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Jason: [43:42] Do just ask people what they what they think they're going to do.
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Scot: [43:46] Yeah do you feel like you're being compensated fairly that's a good 1 there's a lot of good ones, all right well I think you did pretty good let's see how I did.
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Jason: [43:55] I think 3 out of 5 is better than my historical average.
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Scot: [43:58] Yeah it is yes usually it's 1 so you crushed it 3x it.
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Jason: [44:03] Gotcha, all right now let's get to Scottsand I'm I'm I also didn't remember Scott so I'm looking at them and the first 1 makes me so happy already, so prediction number 1 Amazon launches Alexa on a native llm.
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Scot: [44:23] Yeah did I say was tried or no no I didn't say try okay they tried like 3 times and failed and they've I think already in 25 they tried again and failed so yeahthis is kind of sad you know I I have a.
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Jason: [44:34] Thisyeahit's super sad.
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Scot: [44:38] Amazon is not a day 1 company anymore and they're a day.
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Jason: [44:42] It is day it is Day 2 at Amazon I'm sorry to all my friends at Amazon but I think it's pretty clear um.
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Scot: [44:47] Yeah.
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Jason: [44:47] The what's funny I will disclose I was a little miffed at you when you made this prediction a year ago because I'm pretty sure I pointed out to you when I saw this prediction before the show that Amazon had already announced they were doing this and I'm like it's not fair to predict something that Amazon already said they're doing, and and you I think didn't have time to make any new predictions so you just stuck with it and like even though they announced that they were going to do it in 2023 they tried 4 times in 2024 and couldn't get it so so Amazon's lack of execution caused me to win 1.
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Scot: [45:20] Yeah I read an article and it's from that that seattle-based publication that sometimes gets some juicy Amazon information do you remember the name of it I can't, it's on the tip of the mount.
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Jason: [45:30] Is it the Seattle Times is that the.
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Scot: [45:32] No it's got like a you know a techy kind of a name, but it's interesting this is like I remember reading it like in October November and an Insider was explaining why they're so delayed and what they found is the and they're using I think anthropic underneath the the hood.
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Jason: [45:47] Will not originally several of those efforts they tried to build their own and then they they gave up and then they went to anthropic exactly.
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Scot: [45:54] Well this guy you know this reporter fared it out and you know it's it's anonymously sourced so it's hard to it's like so specific to what seemed pretty Legit To Me that the the problem is you you and I are big fans of Ale XA and we have a lot of them and they're really good at like the little Atomic tasks like setting alarms and some little things like that I like to play music and stuff, so what they did is they they had this problem that once they they took their current programmatic stuff which is the simple little things and then they added the LM well once an LM was on it would refuse to do the atomic things and in fact it would be get sassy you would say you know hey you know what's the weather and it would say well you know, do you just want to know it would want to have a conversation it was very chatty so it would never just get to the point and they they haven't figured out how to fix that, so they have this world where like you're going to have to kind of pick you know their current state is the lm1 is really good if you ask it a nuanced question like you know how do you know how do these things work or something how do microwaves work and it would be happy to chat with you about that but if you ask it like you know what the weather is today it wants to kind of like you know, ask a bunch of follow-up questions and we'll just like remember you're in Chicago and tell you the weather.
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Jason: [47:04] Yeah so I I'm going to say 2 things about this number 1 there it's so funny what how how big a factor expectations play in your satisfaction like I I have dozens of these devices in my home we I don't know how long we've you and I have had them now but like is it 8 years something like that it's a long time um when I first got them this was magic like this was like, 1 of the the best most reliable Technologies and I liked this so much better than a light switch right and there's all these use cases raising a kid timers or a huge part of my life and and they're great for all these timersso they work exactly as well now as they did 8 years ago but now I'm nothing but frustrated and annoyed by them, the rest of the world has gotten so much better while they've Stood Still and I I get that that that solving the big problems and the atomic problems is is hard but like here's a baby step just every time you come back to me and say I didn't understand what you say send that to an llmlike every time you said I don't have a light name that like maybe ask the llm what what it thinks I meant like but yeahI'm I'm a little bitter I'm waiting for a better version and they're you know they're competitors Apple and Google like, I mean arguably I would I would have a better quality of life right now if I flushed all these things and put Apple or Google Hardware in their place.
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Scot: [48:30] Yeah while we were chatting 1 of the research assistants popped in and the article I read was from that Seattle 1 but it was actually inside there it sourced you know you know how these things go like it takes you 8 clicks to find the original Source it was actually PC World how's that for.
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Jason: [48:45] Ah oh yeah niche.
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Scot: [48:47] Ben Ben Patterson wrote it so if you're interested in that we'll put a link in the show notes it was a it was a good, I found it kind of interesting to kind of like understand what could they possibly be working on and it was like oh that does seem kind of important seems like you want to nail that 1 you can't go backwards on the basics right.
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Jason: [49:03] No okay 0 for 1 so number 2Teemu falters as people realize it's wish 2.0how do you feel you did on that.
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Scot: [49:11] That 1 I clearly lost because I I bet against you and you won so just mathematically I was I was doomed there so that was a bad 1.
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Jason: [49:20] I will say their pace of growth slowed way down in Q4, so so I would argue less because people realized it was wish 2.0 and more because Tik Tok shops, stole a bunch of the the customers from it and Tik Tok Tik Tok shops is potentially a better version of T-Mobile but yeah still they sold 54 billion dollars last year they sold you know 20 25 billion in the US so not wish 2.0 yet.
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Scot: [49:45] Yeah when you I'll talk about later. Uh so I'm a batting zero here retail media networks is currently 52 billion growing 20% and accelerates to 30% growthand and 67 billionrun rate so, you did say they're very hot so did I come close on this 1.
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Jason: [50:06] You you are in the ballpark you know again you were smart enough not to quote a particular sourceand the the sources that that we use most often so e-marketer which you know does a lot of publishing in the space they said 56 billion in 2024so right order magnitude but you did you did miss it by like 10 billion.
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Scot: [50:30] Dang it how about the growth rate it did accelerate I think right.
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Jason: [50:33] Yeah so the data set I'm looking at right here does not have 2023 in it so I don't the22% 22% growth rate.
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Scot: [50:42] Just like acceleration dang itcome on retail media networks get your act together you and Amazon get in there and figure stuff outall right it was a rough year for predictions for meall right number 4.
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Jason: [50:55] Uhyeah I I'm I don't like doing public math but I feel like you're gonna have a hard time beating me at this point.
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Scot: [51:03] Yep I'm hopelessly behind.
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Jason: [51:05] Uh so number 4, whenever you're in trouble go with the stock prediction that's that's what I always say number 4 instacart whose stock IPO at $33 and is now at $23 $23 as of this prediction show in January of 2023 solves ads and Pops to 40 uh dollars a share.
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Scot: [51:27] It was January of 24 yeah but yes you got the dollars right but the time was January 24th.
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Jason: [51:32] Okay got it so.
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Scot: [51:34] If they had done it on January 23rd that would impressive because I would have been predicting the IPO price and where we'd be.
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Jason: [51:39] And it would have been even more predictive if you bought at that point yeah um so what happened in their their stock is this dollar sign cart is that who we're talking about.
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Scot: [51:48] Yeah I questioned it at 45 right now so I beat that 1 and therefore I get 2 points by my mouth.
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Jason: [51:54] Yeah and for any listeners that weren't already clear on this if you want to adopt either of our stock picking you should adopt stocks.
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Scot: [52:03] Yeah this is like you know how the NBA they have the 2-point things and then the 3 this was like a 3-pointer for me so it's like a 2-pointer it's kind of.
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Jason: [52:09] Got it all right all right um I did I feel like your foot might have been on the line so I'm only giving you 1, all right and then rounding out number 5 well everyone thinks T-Mobile uh well, wait while everyone thinks she and tiemoue take share from Amazon they end up hurting Nordstrom Macy's and Target instead materially 10% plus focus on apparel maybe take Target out okay maybe there's some notes in there on the prediction um.
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Scot: [52:40] Um yeah.
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Jason: [52:41] But so high level you're saying.
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Scot: [52:43] I wasn't sure if we knew the I didn't I was trying to like I wasn't sure if we I I occurred to me that Target probably doesn't report on apparel and it doesn't matter about merged from the Macy's because they're mostly up here but yeah that's like what I was talking about.
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Jason: [52:54] I see what you're saying yeah yeah yeah.
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Scot: [52:55] But let's just say target has a rough year is my prediction. This is what's known as a prediction Recon.
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Jason: [53:05] Yeah so how do how what do you how you're grading yourself on this 1 I'm curious.
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Scot: [53:09] I didn't think so I don't think Nordstrom and Macy's are reported yet so we don't know but I don't think I do think Amazon fought back which was interesting like I would never, I thought that I thought they would fight back just in the current mechanism but they came out with their I always forget the name of this what's their to competitor.
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Jason: [53:29] Uh Hall.
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Scot: [53:30] Yeah, you know I think that's interesting in its own so maybe it was actually wrong because I don't know I don't know if Amazon would have come out with that or I guess they did you know I don't think they've slowed Amazon down by any take and I do think they've taken share, from the Omni Channel people.
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Jason: [53:47] Yeah no I I think you are right here so so I I feel like objectively there's a pretty easy way to say this Amazon probably is going to end up growing at twice the the average rate of retail so nobody took share from Amazon.
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Jason: [54:01] And so like I you know as as as well as she and and tiemoue did it it had to be coming out of other people I think it's a little unclear exactly who they came it came out of, you know you're right like they do skew a little apparently and you know that a lot of apparel returns that did poorly Nordstrom didn't have a good year their their stock went down and the family was able to buy the company back like, but so that's not going to be because they lit the world on fire in 2024 a spoiler alert, Macy's you know continues to struggle in their turnaround they just announced hundreds of More Store closures and Target did okay they have kind of fallen out of the, the kind of top tier you know running they're not growing as fast as the Walmarts and and Amazons of the worldbut they they probably, tread water which is probably disappointing for them so don't know if how much shared Sheen or team specifically took out of them but I think it's it's totally correct that Sheen and tiemoue did not grow at Amazon's expense I think it's also true that Amazon is, you know intrinsically nervous company that you know look tries to look at the future and hedge its bets and I think that's why they they launched hall for the the potential of these services to impact Amazon not because of the the material impact it was already having.
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Jason: [55:19] So I'm giving it to youyeah so that puts you at 2 out of 5so a rare a rare win I feel like we should just, like we've already used an hour of the podcast got so I feel like we should just forgo next year's forecast and just you know carry the the champion forward a year.
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Scot: [55:37] Gone out on top is smart yeah I I understand your prediction your your desire to do that but the listeners would be very.
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Jason: [55:45] No the listeners do deserve better they do they do deserve a a shorter tighter better edited show which they're not getting so we should at least give them the predictions. But I do think we should try to be concise uhokay you want to go first or you want me I uh I I would love to hear yours.
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Scot: [56:00] Yes I can go fast all rightdo you want to go first or you wantwhy don't we go with yours because we heard your that will keep us alternating you go.
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Jason: [56:12] So prediction number 1 Sheen and tiemoue are not I I underscore not impacted by changes to Dominus so there's the Biden Administration announced that they were, they were going to suspend a minimum from China and a lot of people thought oh man that's that's a death null for Shen and tiemoue, and I'm predicting that either those those diminished changes won't happen or even if they do happen that they're not going to materially impact Sheen or team machine and team are already too big and they're they're now not using de minimis for a bunch of their deliveries, so I think they announced their goal this year is to deliver 80% of their their European orders from factories they already deliver 50% of their us orders from factories so I don't think I don't think to minimize slows down she and her team who, that's a question I get asked every week by reporters by the way, more likely if she and tiemoue don't have a great year it's going to be because Tik Tok shops does really well or trade Wars you know knock everything off but but it's not going to be because of Dominusso that's prediction number 1, prediction does that shock you or don't care or somewhere in between.
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Scot: [57:17] Wellokay so you're putting tariffs in so it's an and the minimum so you don't think tariffs or diminish are going to slow them downbut tariffs could could slow yeah tariffs are going to like hurt.
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Jason: [57:31] Disregard the tariffs I actually said I I I I hedge there which I shouldn't have I I said they may.
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Scot: [57:37] I I heard tariffs 100% you're saying though not the any tariffs.
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Jason: [57:41] No no no I said they could be impacted by tariffs but they won't be impacted by changes to de minimis.
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Scot: [57:46] Ah okay.
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Jason: [57:47] Um but even tariffs aside I I just yeah I think it's going to be an a good year for Shen and tiemoue and even better year for Tik Tok shopsum, so prediction number 2 I'm just sticking all all Chinese retailers all the time now and this 1 In fairness I have to point out I wrote a week ago, and then Scott realized that he wanted to have the 123 date and so we didn't we didn't do the show this week but but so a week ago I predicted Tik Tok will not be banned in the US but the more important part of my prediction was Tik Tok shops will be the fastest growing retailer that does over a billion dollars in Revenue in the US in 2025so you could debate with, banned or not they kind of got banned for 2 2 hours but more relevantly they're going to be the fastest growing retailer in 2025, the the billion dollar threshold is just to eliminate tiny little companies that you know grow at some huge rate because they're tiny.
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Scot: [58:47] Are we gonna how are we gonna measure that because they don't disclose have you found a good third party that does.
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Jason: [58:52] No but a bunch of analysts will a bunch of third parties will follow them and I'll I'll do a aggregate of the the Morgan Stanley and and City Bank estimates of of their their sales.
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Scot: [59:02] Okayall alone.
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Jason: [59:04] All right all right and sometimes they they are it it's debatable if you should believe them or not but sometimes they the bite dance does say something, about their size in any case prediction number 3 a major auto manufacturer launches D to C offering in the US in 2025.
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Scot: [59:21] Hm a major Auto okay it doesn't have to be a us could be any auto manufacturer can you count Tesla in this 1.
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Jason: [59:29] No because they already are D to C.
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Scot: [59:32] All right okay.
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Jason: [59:34] So it has to be someone other than than someone other than Tesla has to have some real Sales Direct to Consumer bypassing the the third-party D or Network.
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Scot: [59:43] So Hyundai is sung on Amazon but it's through the dealer Network so that would not count if they added like another 1 to that. Okay all rightwe're gonna have a feeling we're gonna have to come back and check some of these nuances because you can get a little slippery in your predictions Mr retail geek.
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Jason: [1:00:00] Suddenly you lose 1 year and suddenly you're all competitive interesting umprediction number 4, retail media networks go through a major consolidation in 2025 so a lot of the smaller networks realize they can't, succeed on their own they don't have the success that they they thought they would have and in 2025 we start to see a lot of federations of multiple retailers, that are throwing throwing their Edge units together to try to get bigger volumes.
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Scot: [1:00:30] And then does that mean so they're not going to like the retailers aren't going to merge but maybe there'll be some kind of a way for their inventory and sales teams or something.
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Jason: [1:00:37] Their ad networks will merge yeah so you buy an ad for all the regional grocers in the northeast of just from Wegman's.
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Scot: [1:00:43] Yeahyeah that 1 sounds like a pretty pretty logical 1 just kind of a question of when like the trick timing on these is always tricky.
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Jason: [1:00:50] Timing turns out to be way harder part of predictions than you and I have each had a really wise prediction that we would predict 3 years in a row be wrong and then get tired of predicting it and have it come true, uh which is heartbreaking but so my fifth predictionI I feel like I might be, repeating tradition this was my bonus last year but it's my actual prediction this year who I streaming VR and voice Comm Commerce are all materially insignificant in 2025 no evidence that consumers care about green or purpose-driven brand with their wallets. So uh again this is because I get calls every week from reporters that want to do a article about how what a big deal live streaming is or or VR Commerce or how everyone has to have a green Mission or they're going to fail, and it's all a bunch of March so I'm chromogen me is saying none of those things are going to be a big story in 2025um, and then I did write a bonus again and the reason this would have been my fifth prediction but I actually couldn't figure out a smart way to measure it and so I I opted to not, not put it in there although debatably the the 1 I replaced it with is also tough to measure but my bonus is AI agents are the hottest Trend in Commerce and so we we talked about that in the in the NRF recap but I I I think the our agent space is going to be really really interesting and eventually very meaningful to Commerce.
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Scot: [1:02:14] We should do a deep dive on on that we we're behind deep Dives every time we say deep deep dive we we haven't had time to do it but.
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Jason: [1:02:20] Yes we'll make it happenall right so what do you got Scott.
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Scot: [1:02:26] All right Amazon relaunches Alexa on a native element just kidding I'm I have a I have officially given up on that 1 sorry Amazonyep.
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Jason: [1:02:33] Yeah so I'm grateful that you gave up because that means I have a chance of actually getting a better 1 this year.
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Scot: [1:02:44] Okay on this 1 I think Facebook, is going to acquire eBay and put them out of their misery so eBay has been on this kind of like, painful decline I'm a I'm a huge eBay fan and it's been kind of sad to watch them like not keep up with the times and I was initially excited they bought a guy back Jamie I think it's his name is Ion or something like that and uh he he's a really nice guy and he was.
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Jason: [1:03:08] In a way I think yeah.
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Scot: [1:03:08] Category guy in a way and you know I just think it's like too big of a beast and kind of too far gone and got an innovator's dilemma problem all kinds of problems so I think Facebook buys it and they kind of merge it in with Facebook groups in some way and and Marketplace and to kind of figure out a way to to to re reimagine it as kind of a peace inside of the social network and you know and they probably get the ad piece and all the data and it. It it probably makes sense just.
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Jason: [1:03:40] I love that I love that I also love that you call it Facebook and not meta.
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Scot: [1:03:44] Yeah refused to um I think they're going to regret that they prior to do they're probably going to like change to some kind of an AI.
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Jason: [1:03:50] I think that wasn't wasn't that my fifth prediction I think was that it's on yeahthe metaverse is material eiroa.
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Scot: [1:03:58] Okay I'm going to redo I'm not going to redo my Alexa and I'm going to revisit the T-Mobile and I still think if your premise is like silly gamification and cheap junk that that's going to catch up with you so I think it's going to catch up with them this year, um yep so I have a you know specifically they're going to be down at least 25% year-over-year from 24 to 25.
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Jason: [1:04:18] I love this cuz we violently disagreed so that'll be fun to watch again in my perspective Teemu possibly could be down but if they are it's because someone will be selling the cheap junk better than them not because nobody's buying cheap jump.
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Scot: [1:04:30] Yeah just I don't know, all right okay this 1 may explain may take some explain so AI agents become a double-edged sword for retailers because a these agents can be a couple of things and.
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Scot: [1:04:43] I'm a retailer, I think I'm okay with an agent like embedded on my site like my agent you know my my thing on my site my experience so I can draw I'm not sure I want the external agents, you know making me a back a headless serviceand you know especially if you're you and I know a lot of these retailers make, bunch of their money off you know the add-ons the, that they they almost don't if they were just became a transactional part of a hey agent I need to get dog food book a trip to La this that and the other they they start to lose money because a lot most most of not all their margin comes from the little things and it's add-ons it's you know all the little things and I think I think they they will that's the double edge so the prediction is, I think1, okay 10 10 the larger retailers will block them and I think it's going to be like the Amazons the Walmart's the targets those types of folks but I think the rest of them if you're a if you're a big 1, you're going to want to you're going to have enough power that you're going to want to block it and you'll be okay and again this is not the use case of its on your site this is like a third-party entity is using you as a, you know an endpoint for an agent to buy something um and then I think everyone else will will kind of Welcome them and and maybe even make it easier so it's going to be like a really weird, bifurcation for how retailers handle that that new thing.
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Jason: [1:06:12] Got it yeah yeah no I totally get it, I mean yeah every everyone wants to be the AI agent no 1's to be a sharecropper on someone else's AI agenttoy get it like I I think for the fulfilling product I also think that's true on the data side by the way like the best agents are are they going to be the ones that know the most about your life and so you that would argue for interoperability right like the agent ought to be able to see read your Gmail and read your travel schedule.
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Scot: [1:06:37] Oh I have a prediction on this too.
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Jason: [1:06:38] Yeah oh okay I'll shut up on that then um but they're all they're all going to want to be well Gardens and be agents that only have you know are the only 1 that sees their data is how they're all going to try to win in the in the short run at least unless consumers make them change.
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Scot: [1:06:52] Well there's a throwaway line in the I also I came very close to spending the $200 to get to the operator but I also showed some constraint yeah yes.
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Jason: [1:07:01] You make me feel better about my decision I was worried you were going to say that's that's ridiculous Jason you should just spend money.
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Scot: [1:07:06] When they're it's like they have they have a throwaway line in there and they're like oh an operator you know once you pay uh it will remember your payment information for next time and I was kind of like, wow you know that that that raises a lot of questions Jason and I have a lot to talk about when we play with this thing I worried like a lot of these companies.
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Jason: [1:07:24] Going to we're going to leave the hose in your armtake more blood on it whenever we want it.
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Scot: [1:07:27] Yeah is that piece is there a PCA compliant PCI compliance this thing's scraping me entering my credit card and like where is it storing it.
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Jason: [1:07:35] Oh I'm sure I'm sure they have a bunch of adults that are super focused on PCI at uh at openai.
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Scot: [1:07:42] I can't tell if that's.
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Jason: [1:07:43] The same people that made sure they didn't use Scarlett Johansson's voice right.
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Scot: [1:07:47] Yeah so I'm a little you know when I try this I'm going to use my credit card that that uh I use for these types of experience.
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Jason: [1:07:55] The 9-year-old video game player say it's a little sus.
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Scot: [1:07:58] Yeah it's totally Seuss there's no risk just riskless um, okay number 4 marketplaces have a new leg of expansion yay marketplaces into a variety of placesmaybe even 1 of the LMS get some religion around marketplaces, and then this kind of ties in you made this interesting point that there's connective tissue between marketplaces and RNs and I think what happens is all these people have rolled out our MNS and they're going to say they're going to pull all the little ad levers and all that jazz that you guys are doing the ad world with you know, ad units and number of AD units per thing and then they're going to it's going to slow down they're going to say Hey what if we had more products how do we get more products on our site because that's going to be more page views well what's leaning into marketplaces so I think we're going to see this another I think rmns are going to retail media networks are going to pull marketplaces into more places that maybe previously haven't done them.
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Jason: [1:08:49] So is this specific prediction here then 5 major new retailers will launch a Marketplace is that what you're sayingoh awesome okay.
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Scot: [1:08:58] Major would be like let's call it the top 200 or whatever you know yeah not.
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Jason: [1:09:01] Suresure significant retailers yeah okay.
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Scot: [1:09:05] If retail Geeks uh you know merch store rolls it out.
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Jason: [1:09:07] I know I know a bunch of vendors that sell that sell Marketplace Stacks that that are just thrilled to see that prediction.
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Scot: [1:09:13] Yeah the the miracle folks have done a good job.
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Jason: [1:09:15] Exactly who I was thinking ofuh they have a lot of competition these days by the way.
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Scot: [1:09:21] Yeah there's software is tough man.
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Jason: [1:09:23] Yeah as you wisely predicted the SAS had its moment but it's pretty pretty will bear to entry these days.
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Scot: [1:09:31] And then number 5 and this is just my phrasing but it should resonate with you personalization is out and you know, I call it memory so so some of these LMS you're using and if they see an interesting fact about you they'll say I've added that to my memory or they'll give you a prompt that says hey Jason I see you're talking a lot about your cat, I'm going to remember you have a cat okay, that type of a thing so so I do think that that's going to be where you know these things will start to ask hey if I had access to your Gmail just this 1 time and I knew a little bit more about you and that could be the types of products you've ordered your upcoming trips to your point your calendar I could make your life a little bit easier so we're going to start trading off this convenience for data and I think it, it's gonna be painful because it's gonna be stored probably at the LM level with 1 of the big LMS and it's not going to be cross LM so someone could figure that out, I don't know if that's to figure out but, it's going to kind of be stinky in a way because it will be a lock in because that lock in a convenience will make it relatively painful once you know lm1 knows all the stuff about you that your left-handed you have a dog and a cat and you prefer Pringles over let you know whatever your preferences are across travel all these different things that's going to be so convenient that it's going to be hard to break that and and it'll be hard to, extract them and make them portable and no 1's going to want to have them extractable and portable.
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Jason: [1:10:59] Interesting yeah I think it's a super interesting point I think it's going to be fascinating to watch it all play out I'm not exactly sure how we'll be measuring this 1 a year from now but II like it, I feel like the answer though Scott is super simple if just every piece of personal data about all of us was just on the blockchain and anyone that we give permission to could just tap into all of it.
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Scot: [1:11:20] Well said it had a coin if it had a utility coin.
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Jason: [1:11:23] Yeah and the only problem is we need the power of about 12 sons to power all the the compute for all that but yeah.
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Scot: [1:11:31] Well actually it's kind of funny that you know everyone was freaking out about crypto and power that's like that's a drop in the bucket compared to the AI power you asked chat gbt to help with your homework and you just like yeah.
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Jason: [1:11:42] Take out a rainforest.
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Scot: [1:11:43] 80 80 Bitcoin transactions I I don't know but like it's a it's kind of crazy.
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Jason: [1:11:47] Yeah I have a lot of clients that ask how they can use generative AI to achieve their their ecology goalsreally.
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Scot: [1:11:55] Uh yeahget a lot of solar panels.
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Jason: [1:12:00] Yeaha lot of solar panels like planets worth um awesome yeah you have a bonus.
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Scot: [1:12:06] Bonus and and you know you kind of I don't know if you count this in your replenishment kind of thing but but there's a lot of supply chain is hit kind of a, not a wall but there's some problems in there that are hard for humans there's a set of problems that start to get these you know multivariable Solutions kinds of things and some AI so a really good 1 a good analogy that may not seem like a good, connective 1 on the surfaces drug Discovery so there's these things like folding proteins and things to figure out a different drugs and how to develop them and if they're candidates for solving certain things, it ends up at its simplest in a computer science standpoint it's like, it's these uh 4 5 6 7 8 dimensional problems where you end up having these you know surface areas colliding and crazy ways and you're looking for they have lots of collisions in there that could be answers and you're trying to find the optimal.
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Scot: [1:12:58] And that's a set of problems that that happens when you get a lot of complexity of of of the trade-offs become you know, hard to even enumerate like if I do this then this happens and this happens supply chain has a lot of that right like if I if Jason orders the product here and it goes it needs in Chicago and he waited a day he could have gotten this added to the box and that does this and it's that and the other, so so there's some really you know they're using both Ai and interesting ways that they're different types this is more like the Deep Mind type of a thing where there's a, there's a winner State at the end not a not a natural language kind of thing, another 1 that's really interesting and I've gone pretty deep on this and it's pretty crazy is we don't have time you know but I'll just kind of introduce the topic here within the world of quantum Computing you have 2 types of computers you have cubits which are going to be better and they're good for, you know doing crazy calculations in parallel and and stuff that we don't even 100% understand the other 1 is there's a this thing called Quantum annealing where you load, the problem into this uh quantum computer, and then you cool it down and then there's something about the quantum nature of it that it goes right to the low point it finds the answer relatively quickly or a set of answers that are you know are almost guaranteed to be 1 or 2 of the the, the optimal answers so uh I've actually talked to people that are like looking at this in supply chain and and trying to figure this kind of stuff out and that's going to be interesting like it could be.
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Scot: [1:14:21] You know right now we're getting like 1 and 2% kind of things out of supply chain but maybe we get like a 5 or 10% off something like that so.
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Jason: [1:14:28] Scot I love that you found a way to work Quantum cubits and a kneeling into what minute 1 hour and 18 of the puck.
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Scot: [1:14:36] It's a little bonus for the people that stick around you got to give them got to give.
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Jason: [1:14:40] No no no I will I will say, it's super interesting and I like the the the very early versions of this kind of stuff is already showing up at at in the NRF vendor so there there are now like people have moved on from these kind of like, like Old School Ms to we'll call it a supply chain or order orchestration so instead of like, new Legacy systems to do these things like interoperability of all these disparate data sources to, to be way more efficient and so the you know there there were vendors like next nextuple or pipe 17 at interf this year that are already using AI to optimize supply chain in ways that you know humans couldn't see or understand which is pretty cool.
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Scot: [1:15:22] Awesome well if you stuck with us this long listeners we appreciate it and that's uh before you go to bed start learning about Quantum and kneeling and then we'll uh we'll do a deep dive if there's enough demand.
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Jason: [1:15:32] Yeah yeah we'll have a question and answer show in the listeners can explain it to us um, it's got its we we say it's happened again that we've run out of time but that was 15 minutes agoso we've blown way past time everyone complains that we have been publishing enough shows so be careful what you wish for, as we we hit some almost epic choir length podcast this week. Always a lot of fun talking to you I think the predictions are super interesting I'm going to cherish my rare annual win for at least the next you know 2 or 3 hours, and sure appreciate everyone sticking with us as always if you find Value in this show jump on iTunes and give us that 5-star review the AI robots love the 5-star reviews our corporate our our AI overlords are going to want them.
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Scot: [1:16:21] Yeah congratulations Jason on the big win it's 10 years in the making you finally finally got 1.
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Jason: [1:16:27] I might I might have a future in this industry after all and until next time happy Commercing!<!-- /wp:paragraph -->