AP correspondent Tia Goldenberg and scholar Hussein Ibish discuss the significance of a high-profile killing in Lebanon and its potential to escalate the conflict between Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah. They also analyze the impact on Benjamin Netanyahu's government and Israel's political dynamics amidst the ongoing war.
The recent drone strike in Lebanon, killing a top Hamas deputy, may escalate Israel's war with Hamas and potentially involve other actors in the conflict.
While the Israeli strike on Salah El-Auri was viewed positively by many ordinary Israelis, it may complicate efforts to negotiate the release of remaining hostages held by Hamas and not significantly boost Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's popularity.
Deep dives
Israel's drone strike on Hamas officials in Lebanon raises concerns of wider war
A recent drone strike in Lebanon killed a top Hamas deputy and two other officials. Although Israel has not claimed responsibility, both the U.S. and Hamas attribute it to the IDF. The deceased, Salah El-Auri, served as a mediator between Hamas and Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militia funded by Iran. Analysts worry that this incident might escalate Israel's war with Hamas and provoke a larger conflict involving other actors. Israel aims to weaken Hamas and eliminate its leaders, but past targeted assassinations have shown that Hamas quickly replaces its members. The death of El-Auri is not likely to significantly alter the course of the war in the short term. However, tensions have increased, and there is anticipation of a potential response from Hezbollah.
Israel's strike on Hamas leader disrupts hostage negotiations and impacts Israeli domestic politics
The Israeli strike on Salah El-Auri, a senior Hamas member, was received positively by many ordinary Israelis, who view it as a military achievement during the ongoing conflict. However, the strike may complicate efforts to negotiate the release of remaining hostages held by Hamas. While some families of the hostages expressed pride in the killing of a Hamas leader, they also recognize that it may hinder the return of hostages. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, already facing political pressure, is unlikely to see a significant boost in popularity from this strike. Despite rallying behind the war effort, Israelis largely hold Netanyahu responsible for the failure to prevent the October 7 attacks, and many are calling for new leadership.
Implications of the Israeli strike on Salah El-Auri and tensions in the region
The killing of Salah El-Auri presents various potential implications and risks. Israel may seek to provoke Hezbollah, its most potent enemy, into retaliating and escalating the conflict. This would not only jeopardize stability in Lebanon, but also potentially draw the United States and Iran into the conflict. Some Israeli officials see an expanded war as an opportunity to finally persuade the United States to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. However, escalation would have dire consequences, and thus far, key powers involved in the region have not desired a wider war. The situation remains fluid, and observers are watching for any signs of increased attacks by Hezbollah or the return of Israeli forces from Gaza to assess the likelihood of further escalation.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces trouble at home and abroad. AP correspondent Tia Goldenberg and scholar Hussein Ibish explain the significance of a high-profile killing in Lebanon.
This episode was produced by Miles Bryan and Hady Mawajdeh, edited by Matt Collette, fact-checked by Laura Bullard with help from Haleema Shah, engineered by David Herman, and hosted by Noel King.