No More Investing Secrets! (by René Sellmann) 2025 Reflections, AI vs Software, VMS Moats, Portfolio Reshuffling & 2026 Predictions (with Heavy Moat Investments)
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Dec 30, 2025 
Niklas from Heavy Moat Investments, an investor renowned for his concentration on quality businesses and moat analysis, discusses several intriguing themes. He reflects on the lessons of 2025 and the concept of 'Liberation Day' as a pivotal moment. The conversation dives into the impact of AI on software and the competitive barriers of vertical-market software providers. Niklas shares insights on portfolio reshuffling, emphasizing a rigorous approach to investment. They make bold predictions for 2026, hinting at skepticism surrounding AI and the fate of quality stocks.
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Outliers Often Start Small
- Only a tiny fraction of companies drive long-term equity returns; many outliers began as small caps.
- Small-cap exposure matters, but TAM and company quality determine true upside potential.
Small Caps Widen Outcome Dispersion
- Small caps carry wider outcome dispersion and unique risks, so quality frameworks don't translate perfectly.
- Strong unit economics at small scale may not scale and can be quickly disrupted by larger entrants.
Vacation, Flash Crash And Lucky Buys
- Niklas missed large buying opportunities during fast market rebounds while on vacation.
- He still bought some Constellation shares via a German exchange seller at a notable discount.