The Intelligence from The Economist Belarusian roulette: a mutiny’s aftermath
Jun 27, 2023
Christopher Lockwood, Europe editor for The Economist, provides deep insights into the aftermath of the Wagner Group mutiny in Belarus. He explains how Aleksandr Lukashenko became an unexpected peace broker amid rising tensions. The discussion reveals the complexities of Belarus’s relationship with Russia and the uncertain fate of Wagner fighters. Additionally, Lockwood touches on the geopolitical implications for Belarus regarding the Ukraine conflict, showcasing Lukashenko's balancing act in a turbulent region.
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Lukashenko's Surprise Rise
- Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus's president, brokered the deal between Prigozhin and Putin.
- This surprisingly elevated Lukashenko's standing, despite Belarus's dependence on Russia.
Belarus's Role in the War
- Lukashenko has skillfully avoided involving Belarusian troops in the war, despite Russian pressure.
- However, he has agreed to house Russian tactical nuclear weapons, potentially strengthening his ties with Russia.
Belarus's Dependence on Russia
- Belarus maintains a dependence on Moscow, with Lukashenko frequently visiting Putin.
- This one-sided relationship highlights Belarus's reliance on Russia for political stability.