Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 7, 2024
Jun 7, 2024
Mohamed El-Erian and Jeff Rosenberg react to the hotter-than-expected payrolls report. Julie Su discusses jobs and unemployment numbers. Topics include Fed policy implications, retirement security, market volatility, and the impact of immigration on job growth.
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Jobs Report Contradiction
- The May jobs report shows strong demand for employees and wages, closing the door on a July rate cut by the Fed.
- However, forward-looking data is weak, making the economic outlook contradictory and uncertain.
Fed Policy's Restrictiveness Questioned
- The strong May jobs report was stronger than expected and disrupted usual seasonal effects.
- Financial conditions eased, offsetting tighter policies, raising debate on how restrictive Fed policy really is.
Inflation and Fed Rate Perspective
- The Fed is unlikely to cut rates in July given the strong jobs data, despite signs of weakening ahead.
- Secular inflationary pressures exist due to economic and global transitions, suggesting reevaluation of inflation targets.