Tech Won't Save Us Prediction Markets Want to Financialize Everything w/ Jathan Sadowski
28 snips
May 21, 2026 
Jathan Sadowski, associate professor and author who critiques tech and markets. He examines the rise of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. He traces their libertarian roots, VC push to scale, and links to sports betting. He highlights risks: insider trading, media integration, manipulation, and the broader drive to financialize everything.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
DARPA's Controversial Early Prediction Market
- DARPA's FutureMap experiment let anonymous speculators bet on coups and assassinations in 2001.
- Public backlash followed when it was revealed, with senators calling it a "fantasy league terror game," killing political legitimacy for such markets.
Prediction Markets Built On Market Maximalism
- Prediction markets are driven by a libertarian ideology that markets are the best way to aggregate information.
- CEOs like Tarek Mansour promote financializing everything, claiming markets can turn any difference of opinion into a tradable asset for massive scale.
2018 Ruling Fueled Betting And Prediction Market Growth
- The 2018 US Supreme Court decision legalizing sports betting catalyzed the boom of betting platforms and created a pathway for prediction markets.
- Founding timelines show Kalshi (2018) and rapid growth of FanDuel/DraftKings after legalization enabled mainstream integration.
