The Rest Is Politics 372. Syria, al-Sharaa, and the future of the Middle East
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Feb 15, 2025 
David McCloskey, a former CIA analyst with nearly a decade of experience covering Syria, discusses the implications of Ahmed Al-Sharaa's rise to power. He sheds light on the changing political landscape in Syria and how contemporary intelligence analysts adapt to these shifts. The conversation explores the fragmentation of Syria's military and potential new insurgencies, as well as the complexities of U.S. foreign policy and international intelligence sharing. Here, we see how the tumultuous dynamics in Syria resonate globally.
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Unforeseen Collapse
- The rapid, bloodless collapse of the Assad regime surprised intelligence agencies, highlighting the difficulty in predicting such events.
- CIA analysts likely noted the regime's weaknesses but couldn't foresee the timing of the collapse.
Predicting Timing
- Intelligence agencies struggle with predicting timing, as seen with the Syrian and Indonesian regimes.
- Mass psychological shifts are hard to forecast, leading to scenario planning instead of precise timelines.
Assad's Reduced Importance
- Assad's regime, now fallen, is less of an intelligence priority unless he interacts with the new leadership or Russia.
- David McCloskey admits personal curiosity about Assad's fate but acknowledges his reduced intelligence value.
