Cato Daily Podcast
The Voters and Issues That Returned Trump to the White House
Nov 8, 2024
Emily Ekins, Director of polling at the Cato Institute, dives into the key factors behind Trump's return to the White House. She discusses how immigration and inflation reshaped voter preferences since 2020. Ekins highlights shifting demographics, particularly among men and important support from black men in swing states. The repercussions of rising inflation on voter behavior are analyzed, along with the misconceptions surrounding it. She also addresses the disconnect felt by non-college-educated voters influenced by issues like student debt.
14:13
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Quick takeaways
- Trump's electoral success was influenced by non-response bias in polling, highlighting systemic errors affecting the reliability of polling data.
- Voters' dissatisfaction with inflation and immigration shaped their support for Trump, indicating a disconnection with the incumbent government's narrative.
Deep dives
Trump's Poll Performance and Non-Response Bias
Donald Trump once again outperformed polling expectations in the recent presidential election, a trend observed in both 2016 and 2020. One key issue impacting polling accuracy is non-response bias, where a significant portion of Trump supporters choose not to engage with pollsters. This discrepancy primarily arises from the tendency of white Democrats to respond to polls more than white Republicans, suggesting systemic errors that pollsters have struggled to correct. As a result, despite the election outcomes being close, the consistent underestimation of Trump's support has raised concerns about the reliability of polling methodologies in capturing the electorate's sentiments.
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