[Linkpost] “Reducing suffering given long-term cluelessness” by Magnus Vinding

This is a link post.

An objection against trying to reduce suffering is that we cannot predict whether our actions will reduce or increase suffering in the long term. Relatedly, some have argued that we are clueless about the effects that any realistic action would have on total welfare, and this cluelessness, it has been claimed, undermines our reason to help others in effective ways. For example, DiGiovanni (2025) writes: “if my arguments [about cluelessness] hold up, our reason to work on EA causes is undermined.”

There is a grain of truth in these claims: we face enormous uncertainty when trying to reduce suffering on a large scale. Of course, whether we are bound to be completely clueless about the net effects of any action is a much stronger and more controversial claim (and one that I am not convinced of). Yet my goal here is not to discuss the [...]

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Outline:

(01:50) A potential approach: Giving weight to scope-adjusted views

(04:40) Asymmetry in practical recommendations

(05:40) Toy models

(08:25) Justifications and motivations

(08:50) Why give weight to multiple views?

(10:47) Why give weight to a scope-adjusted view?

(17:30) Arguments I have not made

(19:12) Conclusion

(20:01) Acknowledgments

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First published:
June 26th, 2025

Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/dq7cHFgJrZSQBcNrN/untitled-draft-68pm

Linkpost URL:
https://magnusvinding.com/2025/06/25/reducing-suffering-given-long-term-cluelessness/

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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