Buy What You Can Predict with Joseph Shaposhnik, Portfolio Manager of the TCW New Americas Premier Equities Fund
Aug 31, 2023
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Exploring the importance of predictability in cash flows, heavy weighting in Constellation Software, assessing management through relationships with CEOs, differentiating recurring revenue businesses, and why companies like Meta don't make the cut in the portfolio.
Predictability of cash flows is crucial for reducing investment risks.
Focus on companies with recurring revenue models to create consistent growth.
Maintaining a concentrated portfolio with quality businesses leads to superior returns.
Deep dives
Focus on Predictability of Cash Flows
Joseph Schapachnik emphasizes the importance of predictability of cash flows in investment decisions, stemming from his life experiences and professional background. He highlights the significance of being able to predict cash flows and progression of businesses to appropriately value and reduce the risk of catastrophic mistakes in the portfolio.
Preference for Recurring Revenue Businesses
Schapachnik discusses the strategy of focusing on companies with recurring revenue models to build a portfolio of businesses that can grow predictably and consistently. By aiming for high free cash flow and skilled management capable of reinvesting cash flow effectively, he believes in compounding free cash flow per share and creating value for investors over time.
Limited Universe of Predictable Businesses
Due to the stringent criteria of predictability, durability, and criticality required in investments, Schapachnik acknowledges the challenge of finding businesses that meet these standards. He emphasizes the need to be creative in searching for opportunities, including exploring new issues and looking beyond the US market to identify companies that align with the portfolio's criteria.
Concentration and Long-Term Investment Approach
Schapachnik explains the rationale behind maintaining a concentrated portfolio of around 23 businesses, focusing on consistent performance and low risk attributes of individual businesses. By limiting turnover and staying invested in great companies for long periods, he aims to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns to clients and achieve consistency in performance relative to benchmarks.
Focus on Best-of-Breed Businesses and Leadership
Inspired by the mentorship of investors like Will Danoff, Schapachnik emphasizes investing in best-of-breed companies led by exceptional CEOs. He prioritizes aligning with visionary leaders who prioritize generating high cash returns and significant free cash flow per share. By staying with great leaders and top-performing businesses, he seeks to deliver long-term value and enduring success.
My guest on the show today is Joseph Shaposhnik, the portfolio manager of the TCW New Americas Premier Equities Fund. Joseph began managing the fund in 2015 and since then has assembled a concentrated portfolio of mostly US mid-to-large-cap stocks. Morningstar currently has a 4-star rating on the fund, which consists of a collection of high quality, recurring revenue businesses. In this conversation, we covered:
Why predictability of cash flows is so important to Joseph;
The rationale for having a heavy weighting in Constellation Software;
What he has learned about assessing management through his relationship with successful CEOs;
Why all recurring revenue businesses are not created equally; and
Why a company like Meta doesn’t make the cut to be in his portfolio
For more information about Joseph Shaposhnik and TCW Group, please visit: https://www.tcw.com/
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All opinions expressed by your hosts and the podcast guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of SNN or its affiliates. This podcast is for informational purposes only, it is not investment advice, and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. We are not recommending the purchase or sale of any securities. The hosts and guests may be beneficial owners of the securities discussed. You should not assume that the securities discussed are or will be profitable.
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