Big Take Checking the Math on Trump’s $2,000 Checks
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Nov 24, 2025 Nancy Cook, a seasoned White House reporter for Bloomberg, and Dan Flatley, a U.S. Treasury expert, dive into Trump's controversial plan to distribute $2,000 checks funded by tariff revenues. They discuss the potential inflation risks of such stimulus and the skepticism among Republicans and the Treasury. Cook highlights Trump's aim for political branding, while Flatley raises concerns about pending Supreme Court challenges that could jeopardize the revenue needed for these checks. The conversation uncovers the broader implications for Trump's economic agenda ahead of the midterms.
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Tariff Revenue Falls Short
- The Treasury collected about $195 billion in customs duties in fiscal 2025, but estimated dividends would cost far more than that.
- Yale and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget put potential costs at $450–$600 billion, creating a major funding shortfall.
Claimed Win‑Win Is Misleading
- Trump claims he can both cut the deficit and issue $2,000 dividend checks from tariff revenue without tradeoffs.
- Experts and officials note the tariff cash is limited and already eyed for deficit reduction and other priorities.
Branding Over Source Of Funds
- Politically, Trump values the branding of sending checks with his name more than the source of the funds.
- The administration sees direct payments as a tangible message to voters ahead of midterms even if economics are contested.