Not Another Politics Podcast Is Partisan Gerrymandering As Bad As You Think?
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Nov 27, 2025 Kosuke Imai, a political scientist affiliated with Princeton and Harvard, dives into the controversial world of partisan gerrymandering. He shares his innovative simulation methodology, revealing surprising results about its national effects, which largely cancel out but diminish electoral competitiveness. Imai discusses how map-drawing often prioritizes incumbent safety at the expense of competitive districts and explores implications for polarization and potential reforms. His insights challenge common perceptions about the impact of gerrymandering in the political landscape.
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Gerrymandering Mostly Cancels Nationwide
- Kosuke Imai's simulations show partisan gerrymandering largely cancels out nationally, costing about two Republican seats on average.
- The method samples feasible nonpartisan plans under state rules to compare enacted maps with a realistic baseline.
Redistricting Shrinks Electoral Competition
- Enacted maps reduce electoral competitiveness by creating more safe seats and fewer near-50/50 districts.
- That shift likely protects incumbents and dampens seat responsiveness to small vote swings.
Enacted Maps Reduce Seat Responsiveness
- Enacted plans show lower responsiveness: small shifts in votes translate into smaller seat changes than in simulated nonpartisan maps.
- Nonpartisan baselines are more seat-responsive to voter preference swings.