Jeff Rosenberg of BlackRock analyzes the payrolls report impact on the Fed. Pooja Kumra discusses market reaction to UK and French elections. Jon Lieber comments on Biden's campaign status before ABC interview.
Growing concerns over President Biden's cognitive decline and potential impact on the election outcome.
Potential shift in global capital flow dynamics due to changes in government and taxation policies in the UK and France.
Deep dives
Biden's Cognitive Decline and Potential Exit
Concerns over President Biden's cognitive decline have led Eurasia Group to increase the odds of him exiting the race from 15% to 25%. Reports indicate signs of him losing vigor in public appearances, raising questions about his ability to sustain a vigorous campaign. The upcoming interview holds significant importance for Biden's image, with potential consequences for the election outcome.
Potential Successor and Implications of Biden's Exit
In the event of Biden stepping aside, Kamala Harris emerges as a likely successor, equipped to attract money, black votes, and female votes. Other potential candidates like Gretchen Whitmer or Gavin Newsom might face challenges due to lower name recognition and lack of campaign experience. Harris is seen as a strong candidate with less to lose from being the nominee.
Market Implications and Global Capital Flows
Trump's strategy of staying relatively quiet to let the Democratic Party face challenges may continue if Biden exits and a new candidate, possibly Harris, takes the lead. The global capital flow dynamics could see shifts due to changes in government and taxation policies in the UK and France. A reallocation of global wealth flows may impact investing trends, potentially leading back to the United States for stability.
-Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Senior Portfolio Manager -Pooja Kumra, TD Securities European & UK Rates Senior Strategist -Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group Managing Director and Fmr. Policy Adviser to Sen. Mitch McConnell
Jeff Rosenberg of BlackRock reacts to the payrolls report and what it means for the Fed. TD Securities' Pooja Kumra analyzes the market reaction to the UK election and the French election this weekend. Jon Lieber of Eurasia Group comments on the state of the Biden campaign ahead of the president's ABC news interview tonight.