The Marginal Revolution Podcast The Economics Nobel: Predictions, Missed Opportunities, and Questionable Winners
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Oct 8, 2024 This discussion dives into predictions for the upcoming Nobel Prize in economics. Potential winners like Michael Woodford and Susan Athey are highlighted, alongside overlooked contenders. The talk shifts to the essential role of data creators and even considers non-traditional nominees from the cryptocurrency world. Reflecting on missed opportunities and questionable past winners adds depth to the conversation. With AI's rise, the future of economic modeling and recognition in the field takes center stage.
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Potential Nobel Winners
- Alex and Tyler believe Michael Woodford might win for monetary theory, given the recent control of inflation.
- Susan Athey's work introducing machine learning to economics is noteworthy, though perhaps too early for a Nobel.
Pakes and the BLP Model
- Ariel Pakes' BLP model, while complex and not intuitive, revolutionized the understanding of oligopolistic pricing.
- This model uses deep structural parameters to understand pricing in differentiated product markets like the auto industry.
Barro's Contributions
- Tyler Cowen suggests Robert Barro for his work on fiscal policy and political business cycles.
- While Barro's cross-country growth regressions are less popular now, his overall contributions are significant.
