From Solar’s 90% Cost Crash to AI’s Energy Surge: The Economics Driving Climate Tech

Sep 16, 2025

Pavel Molchanov, an Investment Strategy Analyst at Raymond James with two decades in energy markets, shares compelling insights on climate tech economics. He discusses the staggering 90% drop in solar panel costs, highlighting its role in making clean energy viable. Pavel emphasizes that economic viability matters more than mere technical advancements. He explores the dual impact of AI on energy demand and grid management, the importance of geography in solution selection, and consumer actions like adopting EVs and solar power. His cautious optimism about net zero underscores the urgency for adaptation.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

Solar's 90% Price Collapse

Solar module prices fell from $3/W to ~$0.07/W globally over 20 years, a >90% decline.
That drop made solar vastly more affordable and enabled massive adoption at scale.

INSIGHT

China Outpaced Expectations

China scaled EVs and solar far faster than many expected, reaching ~50% EV share for new cars and installing more solar than the rest of world combined.
Different countries can lead different technologies based on policy and industrial capacity.

ADVICE

Watch Interest Rates Carefully

Consider interest rates when planning climate projects since lower rates reduce financing costs and enable more builds.
Monitor treasury yields because they materially affect capital-intensive clean-energy deployments.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

Solar panel costs have dropped 90% in the past two decades, transforming clean energy from subsidy-dependent to economically viable on its own. If we care about scaling climate tech, we need to understand the role of economics, policy, and geography in shaping which solutions thrive.

In this episode of Hardware to Save a Planet, host Dylan Garrett welcomes Pavel Molchanov, Investment Strategy Analyst at Raymond James, to share insights from his 20 years of studying energy markets. Pavel explains why economic viability is more important than technical breakthroughs, how different regions demand different solutions, and why climate adaptation will be essential. He offers a clear-eyed view of what it really takes for climate tech to achieve global impact.

What you will learn:

How solar panel costs dropped 90% in 20 years and what this teaches us about technology scaling
Why policy support isn't the end-all, be-all for climate tech success
The key differences between "carrot" and "stick" climate policies
How geography and local conditions determine the optimal mix of climate solutions
Why economic viability, not just technical feasibility, is crucial for climate tech success
How AI is both driving massive energy demand and enabling better grid management
Why adaptation strategies will be crucial for the next 20-40 years
How consumers can take meaningful climate action through EVs, solar adoption, and dietary choices

Pavel Molchanov is an Investment Strategy Analyst at Raymond James, focusing on energy, climate, and basic materials. With over two decades of experience, he began covering renewables in 2006 and is recognized as one of Wall Street’s leading voices in climate tech investing. A frequent guest on CNBC and Bloomberg, Pavel connects policy, science, and markets across sectors like solar, EVs, hydrogen, and carbon capture. He also serves on multiple advisory boards and supports global climate and sustainability initiatives.

Episode Resource

Pavel Molchanov on LinkedIn
Raymond James Website
Dylan Garrett on LinkedIn
Synapse Website
Hardware to Save a Planet Apple Podcasts
Hardware to Save a Planet Spotify

Hardware to Save a Planet is handcrafted by our friends over at: fame.so

If you are interested in sponsoring Hardware to Save a Planet, please see our sponsorship offer here.

Previous guests include: Peter Reinhardt of Charm Industrial, Carlos Araque of Quaise, Noah McQueen of Heirloom, Areeb Malik of Glacier, Jeff Satwicz of Bigbelly, Abe Schneider of Natel Energy, Insiya Jafferjee of Shellworks, Paul Gross of Remora, Erika Boeing of Accelerate Wind and Daniel Betts of Blue Frontier.

Check out our three most downloaded episodes:

If you have an interesting hardware solution to the climate crisis and would like the opportunity to share this with our audience, please complete this Guest Application form: https://fame.so/syn