This episode of Conflicted explores the Iranian system and the future of the country outside of the despotic regime. It discusses the protests, backlash, and rising death toll in Iran, the influence of Shia revolutionaries, the implementation of Sayad Kutub's ideas in the Iranian Revolution, and the powers of the Supreme Leader in Iran. The speaker also advocates for rationality in Iranian decision-making and a potential change in leadership.
Iran's political system is dominated by the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, who holds extensive powers and controls the armed forces and intelligence operations, while the president has limited power in comparison.
Sayid Qutb, a prominent leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, had a significant influence on Iran's Islamic Revolution, with his ideas of resisting unjust governments and establishing an Islamic government resonating with Iranian revolutionaries.
Deep dives
The Structure of Iran's Revolutionary System
Iran's political system is dominated by the Supreme Leader, who has extensive powers, including control over the armed forces and intelligence operations. The president, although formally elected, has limited power compared to the Supreme Leader. The Council of Guardians, appointed by the Supreme Leader, has the ability to veto legislation that goes against the revolution's principles. The Assembly of Experts, elected by the public, elects the Supreme Leader. The Expediency Discernment Council acts as a mediator between the Council of Guardians and the Parliament. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is a parallel army that defends the revolution and maintains domestic security. It has grown to become a major political, economic, and military power in Iran, exerting influence over various sectors and playing a key role in regional conflicts.
The Influence of Sayid Qutb in Iran
Sayid Qutb, a prominent leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, had a significant influence on Iran's Islamic Revolution. Although Qutb was Sunni, his writings found appeal among Shia scholars and philosophers who sought a political framework for their revolutionary aspirations. Translations of his works influenced the political and ideological discourses of Islamism in pre-revolutionary Iran. Qutb's ideas of resisting unjust governments and establishing an Islamic government resonated with Iranian revolutionaries. His works were translated and distributed among Iranian intellectuals, with Ayatollah Khomeini's own writings influenced by Qutb. The Iranian regime's support for Qutb is reflected in a postage stamp issued in his honor and the visit of Muslim Brotherhood President Mohammed Morsi to Iran.
The Power and Influence of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
The IRGC, founded by Ayatollah Khomeini, is the Supreme Leader's army and plays a vital role in protecting the regime and the revolution. It initially focused on maintaining domestic security during the revolution and the Iran-Iraq War. Over time, the IRGC expanded its power, forming its own air force and navy, and controlling assets in telecommunications, construction, and ports. The IRGC's political and economic influence grew, especially after threats from the United States following the collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq. The IRGC exercises significant power in Iran, with former officers holding key positions in the government. It also extends its influence beyond Iran, supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shia militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen.
Potential Path to a More Cooperative Iran
To transform Iran into a more cooperative and normative country, a significant change would be the abolition of Article 5 of the Iranian Constitution, removing the position of the Ayatollah and replacing it with a presidential system. This would encourage a shift towards rationality and reason, allowing Iran to focus on its own interests rather than pursuing unattainable religious aspirations. However, the complex and entrenched nature of the Iranian regime, as well as its connections to the IRGC, make such a change unlikely in the near future.
It’s always difficult to know exactly what is going on in Iran - that isolated, Shia theocracy that dominates so much of the Middle Eastern land mass. It's a diverse and divisive state, ruled with an iron fist by Ayatollah Khamenei, whose supreme power means he can dictate what the country does and how it is run, at home and abroad. But in recent years, protests against the regime have been growing, leading to many people hoping that an end to the Islamic Republic and its Islamic Revolution could be on the horizon.
In this episode of Conflicted, we move away from looking at the world of Sunni Islam to focus again on the Shia minority, who still retain a real influence over the region’s geopolitics. After getting the state of play in Persia, we’ll try to analyse how the Iranian system actually works, before looking ahead to what a future outside of Khamenei’s despotic regime could look like.
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