Weekly Notebook Review | Raising Some Cash $SPY $QQQ $IWM $USO $GLD $VIX | August 16, 2023
Aug 17, 2023
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In this podcast, the host discusses various topics related to the market including gold, rates, and volatility. They explore potential alpha opportunities in the autos industry and discuss shorting the Chinese Rambi. They also analyze the decrease in QOQ SAR numbers and discuss the energy sector as a strong investment. Additionally, they talk about defense sector allocation and investing in specific criteria.
01:25:51
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Quick takeaways
The signal strength for gold has weakened due to increased real rates, leading to reduced exposure and minimized position size.
The Japanese yen remains strong, while EM currencies like the Mexican peso are volatile, warranting careful assessment of factors before making investment decisions.
The Atlanta Fed's GDP now model projects higher GDP growth, emphasizing the importance of analyzing factors like retail sales and industrial production for investment decisions.
Deep dives
Gold and Real Rates
The signal strength for gold has weakened due to a shift in the real rates environment. Real rates have increased significantly, causing a drag on gold prices. As a result, exposure to gold has been reduced and the position size has been minimized. While gold remains in a bullish trend, it has lost trade momentum. It is important to monitor the real rates environment as it continues to impact the performance of gold.
Japanese Yen and EM
The Japanese yen has experienced rough days recently, signaling a shift in market dynamics. The signal strength for Japan remains strong, warranting continued exposure to Japanese assets. On the other hand, EM currencies, including the Mexican peso, are experiencing volatility due to various factors such as interest rate differentials and changing central bank policies. It is important to assess the potential impact of these factors before making investment decisions.
GDP Outlook
The GDP now model from the Atlanta Fed has projected a higher GDP growth rate than other estimates, prompting discussion and debate. It is important to analyze various factors such as retail sales, industrial production, and labor income to gain a better understanding of the economic landscape. While estimates may differ, it is essential to consider the data and signals that drive these projections when making investment decisions.
Understanding Gold Volatility
While gold prices have been under pressure lately, gold volatility has not experienced significant movements. This suggests that the recent decline in gold prices may be influenced by factors such as margin calls and forced selling, rather than a shift in market dynamics. It is crucial to monitor gold volatility and consider the broader market context before making investment decisions.
Observation on Pound versus Dollar
The speaker discusses the observation that the pound may eventually decline in value compared to the dollar due to the inflationary environment and potential mortgage rate increases in the UK. While the pound has found a floor recently, its overall trend is still uncertain. The speaker suggests keeping an eye on this currency pair for potential opportunities.
Defense Sector Allocation and Utility Exposure
The speaker briefly mentions the defense sector allocation and notes that it is a sector with potential secular growth due to increasing global military budgets. However, there is a caution regarding the selection of specific companies within the sector, such as Boeing, which has faced challenges with its management and inventory. In terms of utilities, the speaker acknowledges that the sector has been underperforming and discusses the potential impact of rising energy costs on utility companies. It is suggested to consider companies with pricing power and assess their ability to maintain margins in the face of higher costs.
Each week, Hedgeye’s Robert McGroarty (@HedgeyeRJM on Twitter) hosts #HedgeyeNation to review key data sets, signals and events that jump out of their Notebooks.
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