Tim Harford, a Senior economist for the Financial Times, and David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor at Cambridge, dive into the world of statistics and its real-life implications. They explore how emotional reactions can distort data interpretation, critique the credibility of popular psychology studies, and share cautionary tales about miscommunicating risk during the COVID-19 pandemic. They also discuss strategies to counter misinformation and the importance of diverse news consumption, all while emphasizing the power of numbers in understanding our world.
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question_answer ANECDOTE
1% Misrepresentation
Tim Harford recounts a newspaper graphic that misrepresented the wealth of the 1%.
It incorrectly stated 85 billionaires, not 70 million people, comprised this group.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Art Forgery
Tim Harford discusses how the world's leading expert on Dutch art was fooled by a forgery.
The expert's desire for the painting to be real overrode his technical expertise.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Misleading Graph
Tim Harford shares a personal anecdote of retweeting a misleading graph about gay marriage support.
He was enthusiastic about the data but hadn't checked the distorted axes.
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In this book, David Spiegelhalter guides readers through the essential principles of statistics, using real-world examples such as analyzing medical screening, crime sprees of serial killers, and determining the luckiest passenger on the Titanic. The book emphasizes the importance of clarifying questions, assumptions, and expectations, and responsibly interpreting the answers. It covers various statistical concepts, including regression models, probability theory, and Bayesian analysis, making it a definitive guide to the power of data in the age of big data.
How to Make the World Add Up
Ten Rules for Thinking Differently About Numbers
Tim Harford
In 'How to Make the World Add Up', Tim Harford provides a comprehensive guide to navigating the world of statistics and data. The book outlines ten simple rules for understanding numbers, along with a golden rule to 'stay curious'. Harford draws on a wide range of examples, from historical figures like Florence Nightingale and John Maynard Keynes to contemporary issues, to illustrate how statistics can be both misleading and informative. He emphasizes the importance of critical thinking, overcoming biases, and maintaining a healthy skepticism when dealing with data. The book is structured around engaging narratives and historical anecdotes, making it an entertaining and informative read for anyone interested in statistics and data analysis.
This episode was recorded in September 2020.
'The undercover economist' and Numbers and economics guru Tim Harford takes a deep dive into the world of statistics. Drawing on the ideas in his new book, How to Make the World Add Up: Ten Rules for Thinking Differently About Numbers, Harford takes us on a journey through art forgery, fake news, big data and dangerous political narratives, relaying the stories behind our understanding of what numbers mean, and showing why using them properly can give us unparalleled insight into every area of life.
Harford was joined by David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor for the Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge, who has been described by Harford on his Radio 4 show More or Less as a ‘statistical national treasure’.
Chairing the event was the mathematician Hannah Fry, whose acclaimed television and radio documentaries have brought the world of maths, data and algorithms to a wide public audience.
To buy the book click here: https://www.waterstones.com/book/how-to-make-the-world-add-up/tim-harford/9781408712245
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