273: James Fishback - THIS TIME It’s Different…or Is It
Jan 10, 2024
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James Fishback, former Head of Macro at Greenlight Capital, discusses fresh perspectives on the economy and markets, the ineffectiveness of interest rate hikes by the Fed, the difficulty in bringing down inflation, investing in AI, and the US economy outlook for 2024.
AI is revolutionizing industries, boosting productivity and cutting costs.
The US economy is currently doing well, with a recession driven by consumer spending being unlikely.
AI will lead to job losses in white-collar roles, while blue-collar workers are expected to be insulated, and focus should be on retraining and investing in infrastructure.
Deep dives
AI as a game changer in the stock market
AI is revolutionizing various industries and will have a bottom-line impact on companies by allowing them to streamline workflows and cut costs. Companies like Microsoft and Tesla are leveraging AI to boost their productivity and deliver gains. While AI will destroy some jobs, it will mainly affect white-collar roles and those in service-oriented sectors. Blue-collar workers will be largely insulated. The adoption of AI will lead to deflation on the business side, allowing companies to cut costs and potentially lower prices. Overall, AI offers bottom-line and top-line benefits to companies and has significant implications for investors.
The impact of the Federal Reserve's decisions
The US economy is currently doing well, supported by consumer spending and fiscal transfers. While there may be a slowing of growth in the future, a US recession, especially one driven by consumer spending, seems unlikely at this point. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in response to changing economic conditions and political considerations. The timing of these cuts may be influenced by the performance of the stock market in the months leading up to the presidential election. It's important for investors to stay nimble and adapt to changing market conditions.
The debate on Universal Basic Income (UBI) and AI's impact on jobs
AI will lead to job losses, primarily in white-collar roles, while blue-collar workers are expected to be insulated from AI labor transformation. UBI is not a viable solution, as it can be inflationary, fiscally unsustainable, and deprive individuals of the dignity and purpose that comes with work. Instead, focus should be on retraining workers for new roles and investing in infrastructure to create new opportunities. AI will have deflationary impacts on businesses and can transform the workplace, benefiting companies' bottom lines.
Investment opportunities in 2024
The global liquidity boom, combined with potential interest rate cuts, creates a favorable risk-on environment for investors. It's important to stay nimble and adapt to changing market conditions. Artificial intelligence (AI) is a significant force that will continue to shape markets in the coming years. Investors can look for opportunities in companies that successfully leverage AI, such as Microsoft and Tesla, which offer both bottom-line benefits and an embedded option on the AI theme.
The potential of AI for productivity and increased profits
AI has the potential to usher in a new era of productivity and increased profits for companies. The automation and streamlining of workflows through AI technology can lead to cost reductions and improved efficiencies. While there may be concerns about job displacement, AI is expected to primarily impact white-collar roles, while blue-collar workers are likely to be spared. AI offers a positive multiplier effect on businesses and has already proven to be a game changer in various industries.
James is the co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Azoria Partners, a global macro investment firm. Prior to Azoria, he served as the Head of Macro at Greenlight Capital, a two-billion-dollar hedge fund led by David Einhorn. He is also the founder of Incubate Debate, America’s fastest-growing high school debate league. As a former national high school debate champion and volunteer debate coach, he launched Incubate in 2019.
James was fortunate to have the opportunity to display his talent and strategies to the well-known billionaire hedge fund manager David Einhorn, which also resulted in James getting exposed to new ideas and ways of looking at economies and markets. Unwilling to repeat the same mantra commonly put out by the financial media, James presents a fresh look at why the economy and the markets have multiple silver linings.
Please note, Chat With Traders does not endorse any specific political viewpoint on our podcast.
