Here's How Associated Press Determines Who Won The Election
Oct 31, 2024
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David Scott, an executive at the Associated Press overseeing election operations, explains how the AP determines election winners. He shares insights into the critical role of their data team and the AP VoteCast system. Listeners learn about the rigorous standards needed for accuracy in closely contested races and the impact of new voters on election calls. Scott also discusses the challenges faced during the pandemic and misinformation, emphasizing the importance of transparency and integrity in upholding democracy.
The Associated Press utilizes a rigorous method of data analysis to ensure election race calls are made only when absolutely certain of the outcomes.
To combat misinformation, the AP enhances transparency in its processes, providing clear insights into the data and methodologies behind its election calls.
Deep dives
Election Night Mechanics
The process of race calling on election night relies heavily on data accuracy and the methodology behind it. The Associated Press (AP) has a team dedicated to declaring winners, ensuring that they only call a race when they are entirely confident that trailing candidates cannot catch up based on current data. This involves analyzing various factors such as advance voting trends and historical voting patterns within each state to maintain a 100 percent accuracy standard. By focusing on evidence-based declarations rather than projections, the AP aims to uphold the trust of voters in the electoral outcome reported.
AP VoteCast: A New Approach
The AP VoteCast system has revolutionized how election data is collected by targeting voters in multiple ways, not just through traditional exit polling. This approach recognizes that most Americans do not vote in person on election day, thus using methods like text messages and phone surveys to gather input from voters casting ballots from various locations. Sample sizes for these surveys are substantially larger than traditional polls, allowing the AP to gain deeper insights into demographic trends and perspectives within the electorate. This comprehensive data collection empowers the AP to analyze voter sentiment more accurately across all states, ensuring representation of smaller voting blocs which might otherwise be overlooked.
Navigating Misinformation and Trust
Amidst rising concerns about misinformation and public distrust, the AP has worked to increase transparency in its election call processes. By providing detailed information about how race calls are made, including the specific data and methodologies used, the AP aims to reinforce public confidence in its reporting. This shift recognizes the critical need for trusted sources of information during elections, particularly as negative narratives can fill the void when accurate data is not available. Maintaining rigorous standards for accuracy ensures that the public can trust the electoral outcomes as authentic representations of voters’ decisions.
David Scott of the Associated Press shares how his organization discerns the winner of the country's elections, including the presidency. NPR relies on the Associated Press for race calls.
This episode: voting correspondent Miles Parks and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.
The podcast is produced by Jeongyoon Han, Casey Morell and Kelli Wessinger. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.
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