The Josh Marshall Podcast Live From New York, It's TPM
Nov 10, 2025
In a lively celebration of 25 years, Kate and Josh break down election results, highlighting shifts in voter behavior, especially among Latinos and young people. They discuss the potential fragility of the Trump realignment and explore how Republican gerrymanders could backfire. The conversation delves into the dynamics of the Democratic coalition and how scandal management influenced the Virginia Attorney General Race. With insights on MAGA coalition fractures and implications from recent state races, they reflect on lessons from the second Trump administration, emphasizing the importance of active resistance.
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Trump Realignment Looks Fragile
- The 2024 Trump 'realignment' appears fragile as Democrats rebounded with Hispanic and young male voters in key races.
- Fragile realignment puts Republican gerrymanders like Texas at greater risk if trends continue.
Post-Pandemic Volatility, Not Structural Shift
- Voter volatility after the pandemic created fluid partisan choices rather than structural realignment.
- Josh Marshall argues many 2020 shifts were transient, so Democrats' gains may reflect reversion to norms.
Maximal Gerrymanders Create Fragile Seats
- Maximal gerrymanders can backfire in a blue wave because packing makes more seats vulnerable.
- Republicans risk losing more seats when they over-concentrate voters to maximize short-term gains.