Macro strategist Tavi Costa joins the host to discuss indicators of a recession and the impact of tightening monetary conditions. They analyze the 'magnificent seven' companies with high valuations, discuss Brazil's market, and explore investment opportunities in the precious metals equity markets. They also highlight the potential in limited stock availability and declining gold production in the precious metals industry.
Indicators point towards a potential recession, prompting investors to seek better investment opportunities in precious metals and undervalued assets.
The narrowing leadership in equity markets raises concerns about a potential bear market, advocating for investment in undervalued businesses and resource-related companies.
Deep dives
Overview of the Macro Landscape and Recessions
In this podcast episode, the macro landscape is discussed, focusing on the possibility of a recession. Various indicators, such as global central bank assets contracting, yield curve inversions, high unemployment rates, and manufacturing below the 50 level for over 12 consecutive months, point towards a potential recession. It is argued that despite a recession not happening yet, the overvaluation of equity markets and the expectation of robust corporate earnings indicate that there are better investment opportunities elsewhere, particularly in precious metals and undervalued assets.
Narrowing Leadership and Bear Market Risk in Equities
The narrowing leadership in the equity markets is a cause for concern. The focus on a few strong companies that continue to rise while other prudent investments are struggling suggests a potential bear market risk. The shift in these companies' capital spending and increased capital requirements raise questions about the long-term sustainability of their valuations. It is argued that there is a better case for investing in undervalued businesses, traditional banking in emerging markets, and resource-related companies, which provide more value and macro perspective than overpriced technology companies.
The Case for Precious Metals and Miners
The podcast highlights the bullish thesis for precious metals, particularly gold, in the current macro environment. The reasoning behind this is the ongoing inflationary era, chronic underinvestment in resource industries, rising labor costs, and excessive fiscal spending. The underallocation of central banks and traditional investment strategies towards gold presents an opportunity for investors. Furthermore, the changes in the industry leadership, the distress opportunities in mining, and the potential for new companies emerging provide interesting investment prospects in precious metals. The podcast also discusses the potential of exploration-focused companies in achieving significant discoveries in the mining sector.
On this weeks Huddle +, Patrick welcomes back to show, after 4 years, Macro Strategist, Tavi Costa. They take a look at all things macro and of course, deep dive into precious metals!