Onward, a Fundrise Production
34: Race against recession: growth vs. debts in America
Mar 15, 2024
The podcast discusses the US dilemma between growth and debt, exploring scenario planning for future outcomes. They compare debt growth in the 1990s and 2008-2023, analyze factors influencing growth like AI, and delve into positive economic scenarios. The conversation highlights the potential impact of stable oil prices, legal immigration rebound, and navigating economic uncertainty with a focus on real estate investments. They explore positive and negative surprises and their implications on the economy and real estate sector.
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Quick takeaways
- Scenario planning is crucial for anticipating different future outcomes in economic growth.
- Real estate investments thrive when growth outpaces debt, benefiting from high GDP growth and low interest rates.
Deep dives
Scenario Planning Framework and Introduction
Planning for the future involves scenario planning, a structured way to anticipate different outcomes. Three main scenarios are typically considered: scenario one predicts more of the same, scenario two involves negative shocks or a hard landing, and scenario three features unexpected surprises. Each scenario aims to prepare organizations for various future situations.
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