Putin's recent visit to Azerbaijan sparks discussion on shifting alliances in the South Caucasus. The geopolitical struggle between Armenia and Azerbaijan intensifies as Armenia aligns more with the West while Azerbaijan strengthens ties with Russia and BRICS. The potential for Armenia's integration into NATO or the EU raises questions about regional stability. Azerbaijan's energy resources play a crucial role in shaping relations with Europe, impacting American and Israeli interests in the region.
Pashinyan's pro-Western policies have deteriorated Armenia's relationship with Russia, significantly altering the region's geopolitical alliances.
Azerbaijan's potential BRICS membership could enhance its regional influence while diminishing Western control and access to energy routes.
Deep dives
Shifting Alliances in the Caucasus
The current geopolitical landscape in the Caucasus is marked by a significant shift in alliances, primarily influenced by the U.S. and the Armenian government under Pashinyan. Historically, Russia has maintained a close relationship with Armenia due to cultural ties and Armenia's significant population in Russia. However, Pashinyan's pro-Western policies, including moves toward potential EU and NATO integration, have led to a rapid deterioration of Armenia's relationship with Russia. As a result, Azerbaijan has capitalized on this shift, bolstering its ties with Russia and positioning itself as a stronger player in the region, effectively changing the power dynamics established since the Soviet era.
Azerbaijan's Potential Role in BRICS
Azerbaijan's growing alignment with Russia presents it with the opportunity to join BRICS, enhancing its geopolitical stature and economic potential. Given its status as an important energy player and a Caspian Sea power, Azerbaijan's integration into BRICS could significantly alter regional dynamics, potentially transforming the Caspian Sea into a strategic asset for BRICS nations. This shift would not only diminish American and European influence in the region but also cut off vital energy access routes to Europe. As Azerbaijan seeks to solidify its alliances, including with Turkey, it appears poised to leave its erstwhile Western connections behind in favor of deeper ties with a Russian-led bloc.