Gilbert Achcar, author of 'The New Cold War: The World After Kosovo', discusses the roots of the current cold war, dating back to events in the 1990s. Topics include the collapse of the Russian economy, failure to create new security architecture in Europe, US-China tensions, and the invasion of Ukraine. They also explore the rise of authoritarian nationalism, NATO enlargement, and the Russia-China relationship. The podcast emphasizes the need for international cooperation and a rules-based international order.
The roots of the new Cold War can be traced back to the 1990s, with events such as the collapse of the Russian economy and the failure to create a new security architecture in Europe.
The alliance between Russia and China was built on their complementarity in economic and military aspects, laying the foundation for their collaboration and defense needs.
The enlargement of NATO, combined with other factors like economic crisis and the erosion of democratic institutions, contributed to the rise of authoritarian nationalism under Putin.
Deep dives
The collapse of the Soviet Union opened the way for a new era in relations between Russia and China
After the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s, relations between the two countries became extremely frosty. However, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia and China saw the opportunity for a new era of collaboration driven by common interests. The weakened Russia needed money and wanted to export its oil, gas, and military hardware, while China needed weapons and found a willing supplier in Russia. The two countries found complementarity in their economic relationship, despite the overall volume of trade being relatively small. The military aspect of their relationship played a crucial role, as they engaged in the sale and purchase of military equipment and established broader military links. This reliance on each other for defense needs, which was absent in their relations with the US, laid the foundation for a strong alliance between Russia and China.
The collapse of the Russian economy in the 1990s laid the basis for a nationalist turn under Vladimir Putin
The economic crisis in Russia during the 1990s, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, had severe consequences for the country. The economic impact of the collapse was even greater than that of the country's experience during World War II. The dire economic conditions and social frustration created fertile ground for the emergence of an authoritarian nationalist sentiment. Boris Yeltsin's assault on democracy further undermined liberal forces in Russia. This context set the stage for Vladimir Putin's rise to power, as he exploited nationalism and pursued a more assertive foreign policy, making use of Russia's military capabilities. The economic crisis and the erosion of democratic institutions played a significant role in shaping Putin's regime.
The debate over NATO enlargement played a significant role in shaping Russian-Western relations
The issue of NATO enlargement was highly debated both within the United States and among Western powers. While some advocated for the enlargement, there were significant opposition and concerns about the potential consequences. Historians and some members of the foreign policy establishment warned of the parallels with the aftermath of World War I, arguing that the enlargement could lead to heightened tensions and destabilization. The decision to continue with NATO's enlargement, as well as the shift in its role from a defensive alliance to one that operated beyond its member states' borders, created a perception of threat and hostility in Russia. This perception, combined with other factors, such as economic crisis, contributed to the rise of authoritarian nationalism under Putin.
The collapse of the Soviet Union and the economic crisis in Russia created conditions for the new Cold War
The collapse of the Soviet Union marked the end of the Cold War era and led to a significant shift in global power dynamics. However, the 1990s saw tensions and key decisions that set the stage for a new era of conflict between the United States, Russia, and China. The collapse of the Russian economy, the failure to create a new security architecture in Europe, and increasing US-China tensions were among the factors that contributed to the new Cold War. These events, rooted in the economic and political realities of the 1990s, set the foundation for the current global situation. The new Cold War is characterized by power struggles, geopolitical tensions, and competing ideologies, with Russia, China, and the United States playing central roles.
China's focus on economic development and avoidance of military intervention
China has pursued a policy of peaceful rise and development, prioritizing economic growth and maintaining a low profile on military matters. This approach is driven by the material interests of the Chinese ruling elite, who recognized the need to build their economy and raise their population out of poverty. They have kept military expenditure relatively low and have been consistent supporters of UN-based policies, non-interference, and negotiations for reconciliation. While China's actions are not without criticism, particularly concerning domestic issues, they present a contrasting behavior to the interventionist approach of the United States.
Importance of the UN Charter and the need for cooperation
The UN Charter and its principles of sovereign equality and non-interference should form the basis for peaceful coexistence between states. Upholding these principles is essential to avoid the interference of stronger states in the affairs of weaker states. However, this does not prevent civil society, political parties, and movements from highlighting and denouncing human rights abuses occurring in other countries. Mechanisms such as the responsibility to protect and support from social and political movements can also provide means to address atrocities. The focus should be on creating an international order based on international law, cooperation, and the UN Charter, rather than unilateral interventions or double standards.
In 1999 in the wake of the Kosovo conflict Gilbert Achcar published a book titled 'The New Cold War: The World After Kosovo'. At the time, describing tensions between the United States, Russia and China in terms of "a cold war" seemed to many to be outlandish hyperbole, or very premature at best. Now, of course the use of the term to describe the global situation is increasingly commonplace, but if we are indeed in a cold war - the question arises - when did it begin? Should it be dated in Russia's case to the 2008 Georgia war, in China to the rise of Xi Jinping and the repression in Hong Kong - or do we need to think back much further?
In today's episode Gilbert Achcar joins the show to discuss his new book, 'The New Cold War: The US, Russia and China - From Kosovo to Ukraine', in which he builds upon his earlier work to argue that the current situation is rooted in events and key decisions made during the 1990s, including the devastating collapse of the Russian economy, the failure to create a new security architecture in Europe after the end of the cold war, and in increasing US-China tensions over Taiwan and other security matters, which were obscured by the deepening economic integration of the two states at the time. In the following interview we discuss these topics, as well as why Gilbert thinks its appropriate to describe Vladimir Putin's regime as neofascist, why recognising NATO enlargement as being a vector for Russian nationalism does not in any way justify the invasion of Ukraine, and we also talked about what Gilbert thinks a more just international order might look like.
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