Ones and Tooze The State of Europe
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Sep 12, 2025 The podcast dives into Europe's shifting political landscape, highlighting France's spiraling public debt and the fallout from a governmental collapse. It examines Germany's economic struggles amid reform debates and an aging population. Meanwhile, Britain's Labour Party grapples with declining approval and identity crises post-Brexit. The discussion reveals how demographic changes are reshaping social democracy across the continent, underscoring challenges that resonate well beyond national borders.
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France's Debt Problem Is Political Not Immediate
- France's public debt rose sharply since 2019 and now exceeds 110% of GDP, driven by pandemic-era borrowing and stalled budget balance efforts.
- Adam Tooze argues this is a political problem more than an immediate market crisis because ECB support and investor demand for French debt remain strong.
Debt Rhetoric Evokes Loss Of Sovereignty
- Bayrou framed fiscal dependence as a threat to sovereignty, echoing Eurozone crisis-era fears about creditor domination.
- Tooze says such rhetoric amplifies politics from the 2010s but France lacks the monetary autonomy of the U.S., making budget politics salient.
Macron: Disrupter Who Lacks Parliamentary Majorities
- Macron's record is contested: he disrupted the party system, pushed through pension and environmental moves, but lost parliamentary control.
- Tooze suggests Macron may be a 'man of history' who misread coalition realities rather than a straightforward centrist success.