Traditional geopolitical analysis is dead. A $10,000 drone can now destroy a $100 million military platform—and this "budgetary exhaustion" strategy is already transforming how smart companies compete. We need systems thinking to navigate the four forces reshaping global power:
balance of power, technology, climate change, and the nature of warfare.
Dr. Nicholas Kenney, founder of Beacon Geopolitical Intelligence, reveals how modern conflict operates through "budgetary exhaustion"—using $10K drones to destroy $100M platforms—and why this asymmetric strategy is already transforming business competition.
Paradigm Shifts:
→ From Stocks to Flows: Geopolitical power no longer comes from controlling territories but from commanding technological stacks—the entire pipeline from extraction to distribution
→ Budgetary Exhaustion Strategy: Ukraine's drone warfare model now applies to business—use low-cost innovation to neutralize competitors' expensive advantages
→ Private Geopolitical Actors: Individual entrepreneurs (Musk/Starlink) now make decisions traditionally reserved for governments, creating new power dynamics
Ecosystem Impact:
→ China's rare earths dominance forced US policy concessions—not through military might but technological stack control
→ DeepSeek vs OpenAI: 80% capability at 20% cost demonstrates an asymmetric competitive strategy
→ Leadership evolution: from "top-down control" to "center-out influence" in complex systems
The Innovation: Recognizing that interconnections between system elements matter more than individual components. Success comes from understanding how power flows through networks, not from accumulating static resources.
Strategic Application: Any organization can apply "budgetary exhaustion" principles—identify competitors' expensive advantages, then develop low-cost alternatives that force unsustainable resource allocation. The goal isn't superiority but sustainability.
Strategic Reframe: In our interconnected world, ask: "What technological stacks do we need to control, and how do we position ourselves at the center of critical flows rather than trying to dominate from the top?"
The most resilient ecosystems cultivate influence through connection, not control.
Guest: Dr. Nicholas Kenney, Founder, Beacon Geopolitical Intelligence
Host: Dyan Finkhousen, Founder & CEO, Shoshin Works
Series Hosts:
Vikram Shyam, Lead Futurist, NASA Glenn Research Center
Dyan Finkhousen, Founder & CEO, Shoshin Works
Ecosystemic Futures is provided by NASA Convergent Aeronautics Solutions Project in collaboration with Shoshin Works.